I think the fat lady may be singing

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Bob78164
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I think the fat lady may be singing

#1 Post by Bob78164 » Sun Oct 23, 2016 5:09 pm

According to Nate Silver's polls-only forecast, Secretary Clinton presently has a 19.0% chance to win Texas. That is better than Trump's chance, according to the forecast, that Trump wins each of the following states: CA, HI, OR, WA, NM, CO, MN, WI, IL, MI, VA, MD, DE, DC, PA, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME (statewide and District 1). (To be precise, I'm saying that Secretary Clinton has a better chance to win Texas than Trump has to win CA, and a better chance to win Texas than Trump has to win HI, etc. That's different from saying that Secretary Clinton has a better chance to win Texas than Trump has to pick up one win among those states.) These states total 270 electoral votes. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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BackInTex
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Re: I think the fat lady may be singing

#2 Post by BackInTex » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:52 am

Just bringing this forward to remind everyone how wrong Bob#s was, is, and will be.


I'm having lots of fun rummaging through some posts from the Fall of '16.
..what country can preserve it’s liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? let them take arms.
~~ Thomas Jefferson

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Re: I think the fat lady may be singing

#3 Post by tlynn78 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:59 am

BackInTex wrote:Just bringing this forward to remind everyone how wrong Bob#s was, is, and will be.


I'm having lots of fun rummaging through some posts from the Fall of '16.

Never gets old. :lol:
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Re: I think the fat lady may be singing

#4 Post by silverscreenselect » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:00 am

BackInTex wrote:Just bringing this forward to remind everyone how wrong Bob#s was, is, and will be.


I'm having lots of fun rummaging through some posts from the Fall of '16.
Of course, that was before Comey decided to release word about re-opening the e-mail investigation. By the way, that's the same Comey that Republicans suspect of being out to get Trump, along with Mueller, Rosenstein, and various other FBI agents.
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Re: I think the fat lady may be singing

#5 Post by BackInTex » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:04 am

silverscreenselect wrote:
BackInTex wrote:Just bringing this forward to remind everyone how wrong Bob#s was, is, and will be.


I'm having lots of fun rummaging through some posts from the Fall of '16.
Of course, that was before Comey decided to release word about re-opening the e-mail investigation. By the way, that's the same Comey that Republicans suspect of being out to get Trump, along with Mueller, Rosenstein, and various other FBI agents.
You should be a speechwriter for Hillary. She's run out of excuses (and places willing to listen, thus the Asia tour), but recycling excses takes some flair. I think you may have it.
..what country can preserve it’s liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? let them take arms.
~~ Thomas Jefferson

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Re: I think the fat lady may be singing

#6 Post by Bob78164 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:00 am

BackInTex wrote:Just bringing this forward to remind everyone how wrong Bob#s was, is, and will be.


I'm having lots of fun rummaging through some posts from the Fall of '16.
Thanks, BiT. That's a good cautionary reminder that, although things look promising for Democratic candidates right now, there's still time for a lot of mischief between now and then so we can't take anything for granted. I'll be sure to redouble my efforts on their behalf between now and Election Day.

Thanks for making sure none of us get complacent. The upcoming election is far too important for that. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: I think the fat lady may be singing

#7 Post by BackInTex » Fri Mar 16, 2018 12:08 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
BackInTex wrote:Just bringing this forward to remind everyone how wrong Bob#s was, is, and will be.


I'm having lots of fun rummaging through some posts from the Fall of '16.
Thanks, BiT. That's a good cautionary reminder that, although things look promising for Democratic candidates right now, there's still time for a lot of mischief between now and then so we can't take anything for granted. I'll be sure to redouble my efforts on their behalf between now and Election Day.

Thanks for making sure none of us get complacent. The upcoming election is far too important for that. --Bob
They are looking up. We've got Republicans running as Democrats and winning 1/2 term seats in districts that won't be around come the real election.
..what country can preserve it’s liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? let them take arms.
~~ Thomas Jefferson

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Re: I think the fat lady may be singing

#8 Post by Bob78164 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 12:37 pm

BackInTex wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
BackInTex wrote:Just bringing this forward to remind everyone how wrong Bob#s was, is, and will be.


I'm having lots of fun rummaging through some posts from the Fall of '16.
Thanks, BiT. That's a good cautionary reminder that, although things look promising for Democratic candidates right now, there's still time for a lot of mischief between now and then so we can't take anything for granted. I'll be sure to redouble my efforts on their behalf between now and Election Day.

Thanks for making sure none of us get complacent. The upcoming election is far too important for that. --Bob
They are looking up. We've got Republicans running as Democrats and winning 1/2 term seats in districts that won't be around come the real election.
Nice try. Republicans poured more than $10 million into the effort to keep the seat. They wanted it. Badly.

Rep.-elect Lamb ran as someone who opposed the recently passed tax cuts for the rich and who supports the Affordable Health Care Act. The latter issue, in particular (at least according to exit polling) was a big deal. And Republicans completely dropped their advertising on the tax plan, presumably because their polling showed it wasn't moving any votes.

I have no intention of imposing an ideological purity test on the candidates I support in this election. And I think most of my party shares that view. We've collectively learned that there's a very real difference between the two parties and that we'll advance a lot more of our preferred policies from the majority. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: I think the fat lady may be singing

#9 Post by jarnon » Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:33 pm

Bob78164 wrote:I have no intention of imposing an ideological purity test on the candidates I support in this election. And I think most of my party shares that view. We've collectively learned that there's a very real difference between the two parties and that we'll advance a lot more of our preferred policies from the majority. --Bob
I'm glad you feel that way. I agree, as do many Democrats, but there are still plenty of purists out there, and they vote in primaries. (Luckily for Democrats, the GOP has purists too.) Please campaign for moderates.
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Re: I think the fat lady may be singing

#10 Post by Bob78164 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:59 pm

jarnon wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:I have no intention of imposing an ideological purity test on the candidates I support in this election. And I think most of my party shares that view. We've collectively learned that there's a very real difference between the two parties and that we'll advance a lot more of our preferred policies from the majority. --Bob
I'm glad you feel that way. I agree, as do many Democrats, but there are still plenty of purists out there, and they vote in primaries. (Luckily for Democrats, the GOP has purists too.) Please campaign for moderates.
It depends on the District. I have no trouble, for instance, with Dianne Feinstein being challenged from the left because it's extremely likely, thanks to our top-two primary system, that the two Democrats will end up in the general election. More generally, I'm okay with ideological challenges in relatively safe Democratic districts (as long as they agree with my ideology, of course). --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: I think the fat lady may be singing

#11 Post by silverscreenselect » Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:23 pm

BackInTex wrote: We've got Republicans running as Democrats and winning 1/2 term seats in districts that won't be around come the real election.
It's amazing how the Republican PACs sank over $10 million into this race (vs. less than $2 million for Democratic PACs) if it was just a district that wouldn't be around come the real election.

There are 119 districts with Republican Reps that have less of a favorable Republican skew than the PA 18th. I wonder how many of the Republican candidates in those districts feel that things are looking up .
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