WWTBAM Bored

By my completely unofficial tally, that puts him up on the field 3-0, counting the other members of my family.

Because this was considered a primary, even though 18 candidates were on the ballot from both parties (as well as two independents), I had to request a Democratic, Republican or non-partisan ballot. My understanding is that in early voting, the Democratic ballots were well ahead of the Republicans (early voting tends to favor Democrats), but by last weekend, the totals for the two parties were just about the same. Also, almost 20% of early voters had requested non-partisan ballots.

If there's a runoff, it's in two months and the nasty campaigning will get even nastier.

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Hip hip hooray for you.

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Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions

Do you really think changing one representative or even a whole bunch will do anything to change things? Washington is broken. The only way we can really fix it is through an Article V Convention of the States. Many groups who oppose the convention (Apparently George Soros has picked that side) are scaring people by saying it would be a Constitutional Convention that has the power to rewrite the Constitution. That is absolutely wrong. Article V gives the State power to propose Amendments only, and those amendments have to be passed by 3/4 of the States, just like Amendments proposed by Congress.
We could get amendments into the Constitution that Washington and the Congress would never do. Term Limits, not only for Congress, but for Supreme Court Justices. Balanced Budget. Washington will never fix itself. It's up to us, as it should be. They work for us, not we for them.

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Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions

Maybe back in the 1700's, when a Convention of the States might have consisted of another gathering similar to the original Constitutional Convention.

Today it would be a media circus with wackos left and right proposing nonsense that will never get through.

And I'm not sure how term limits is a solution. Do successful companies get rid of their best employees because they've been around a few years? We elected someone who wasn't a "career politician" as President; see what that got us. Voters have always had the ability to term limit any politician they want.

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By Nate Silver's back-of-the-envelope figuring, Ossoff is a slight favorite to win the seat. He'd probably be a slight underdog in a runoff but he has enough of a chance to win the election outright today to make him an overall slight favorite. --Bob

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And Washington is not a media circus already? Just let me know who would qualify as a 'best employee'?

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Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions

Somehow, I have little faith in Mr. Silver's predictions anymore.

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Even though there are four other Democrats in the race, my guess is that Ossoff will get almost all the Democratic votes, since those who might be inclined to vote for one of the other Democrats may vote for Ossoff in the hopes of getting an outright majority. There are 11 Republicans, but only four of them have had any real media presence. They are sort of caught in the middle this first election. They can't campaign full-time against Ossoff because they have to try to ensure they finish second and make a runoff.

I'm not sure that Trump's last minute anti-Ossoff twitter campaign will help.

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In Nate Silver's defense-This is probably the kind of district that falls into his wheelhouse. A mixture of urban/suburban that probably polls easily. It is the kind of district that he understands to his core.

OTOH-For example, I would more likely question his analysis if he were doing any of the 3 rural, large outstate Minnesota districts that went for Trump, but that have Democratic congressmen. I think those types of districts are harder for him to "Get."

He's at 61% right now!

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I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
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Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

I'd like to know how a reading of Nate Silver's stuff on Georgia 6 makes Ossoff a slight favorite. Quote from Silver's most recent article on the election:

"Apply the formula, and it shows a photo-finish for the runoff, with the Republican projected to win by 1 percentage point — effectively a toss-up given the formula’s high margin of error."

The betting market give Ossoff only a 40% chance of winning the seat. Silver's point is that that is probably too pessimistic. But I've always read his take on this special election as being "too close to call."

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At this point-Cobb and Dekalb are both 100% in.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ev ... -election/

Silver's pre-election analysis is that Ossoff needs 43% out of Cobb and 60% out of Dekalb.

Final tally for the 2 shows that he is running slightly below that with:

41.3 % in Cobb and 58.6% in Dekalb.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/result ... district-6

A large number of precincts in Fulton are left. Fulton has about half the votes in the CD.

I realize that if Ossoff wins with 50.1% it will be treated as a major rejection of Trump-but is it really? He is just barely scraping ahead of Hillary in Cobb and Dekalb by about 1.5% in each county.

OH MY GOSH!!!! THIS IS THE NEWS OF THE CENTURY!!! PASS OUT THE CEEGARS!!!! WHOOOP WHOOP!!!!!!

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Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions

I read his article (written yesterday) as concluding for the reasons I summarized that Ossoff was (as of yesterday) a slight favorite to win the seat. --Bob

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"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

It looks like Ossoff is going to finish with about 48%. This is short of 50%, but it's also about 6-8 points higher than most of the polls showed.

This district has been Republican since Newt Gingrich was elected in 1978. Mitt Romney won over 60% of the vote here. The last three Congressional elections, since the district has had its current borders were won by Tom Price with 61, 64 and 65% of the vote. There were four serious Republican candidates in the race, and Ossoff had more votes than the four of them combined. It took the presence of 13 fringe candidates, including four other Democrats, to hold him under 50%.

Ossoff still has an uphill fight in the runoff; it's going to depend on who shows up to vote a second time. Karen Handel is the most moderate of the major Republicans in the race and hasn't done well with conservatives in the past. I doubt many of them would vote for Ossoff, but some might decide to stay home.

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Adding up all of the votes cast for Democratic candidates and all of the votes cast for Republican candidates, the breakdown was about as close to 50-50 as you could get, which showed that an outright Democratic victory last night was theoretically possible. Of course, there's a long history of Democratic turnout dropping off dramatically in Georgia's runoffs, so Handel is the slight favorite in June.

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He would have won if it weren't for the damn Russians!!! Curses!!!

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Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions

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To put this in perspective, after qualifying ended, one of the Atlanta Journal columnists made a "bold" prediction that it wouldn't surprise him if a Democrat made the runoff. No one thought there was a possibility of any candidate, let alone a Democrat, coming this close to winning.

National Republican groups have been running anti-Ossoff ads for weeks here, which, ironically has helped improve his name recognition. He hasn't had a specific Republican (other than Trump) to run against until now. Handel has plenty of baggage of her own, which will now be fair game for Ossoff to go after.

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Wow, This guy will save us all! What is he running for this petty House seat for? He obviously should be appointed King of the World. He is our only hope!!!

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Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions

He's starting the same way Obama did.

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I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

You guys are so weird. First you think Kansas is the biggest deal in the world, you lose and it's forgotten. No lessons learned, no introspection. Now it's this guy out of nowhere that has no special qualities that you are lifting to Messiah status. You give him all kinds of money, pretty much all from outside the district, send in the goofy celebrities and make all this media hype, and it still doesn't get him elected. When he loses, you still won't concede or do any introspection. You will find something or someone to blame it on, because it's never you, it's everyone else who are at fault. And above it all, everyone who doesn't agree with you is morally and intellectually inferior to you.

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Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions

Kansas is not forgotten. It showed that support for the Republicans has greatly waned; the same as in Georgia.

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I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

Yup, that's what they tell you. Nothing about support for dems increasing. The whole platform of the dems is based on hate of non dems. Especially Trump. Whatever it is, I'm against it. No matter what it is or who commenced it. I'm against it.

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Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions

If you look at polls, in the last three months, support for Democrats has increased on lots of issues, so that more people agree with the Democrats on virtually every economic issue. A lot of people didn't like the Democratic answers until they saw the alternative, i.e., Trumpcare. Wait until they see the Republican tax proposals. If you had looked at Hillary Clinton's platform, she outlined lots of detailed proposals. Trump offered short answer feel-good platitudes.

The Democrats didn't forget Kansas; they are building on it. If the Democrats increase their level of support nationwide by that they did in Kansas, one of the reddest districts in the country, then they easily take back the house.

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