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Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:49 am
by Bob Juch
After taking 48.1 percent in Tuesday night’s special election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, Jon Ossoff will face Republican Karen Handel in the June 20 run-off election. Handel, who took 19.8 percent, is a former Georgia secretary of state and chair of the Fulton County Commission who has unsuccessfully run for governor and Senate. But in recent years, Handel is probably best known—and notorious—for her time at Susan G. Komen for the Cure, which ended after her failed, politically motivated effort to get the organization to cut off funding for Planned Parenthood to perform cancer screenings.
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:49 am
by Spock
SSS>>>This district has been Republican since Newt Gingrich was elected in 1978. Mitt Romney won over 60% of the vote here. The last three Congressional elections, since the district has had its current borders were won by Tom Price with 61, 64 and 65% of the vote. There were four serious Republican candidates in the race, and Ossoff had more votes than the four of them combined. It took the presence of 13 fringe candidates, including four other Democrats, to hold him under 50%. <<<
How is President Romney doing in his second term with his base of support in generic suburban Republican districts like this one?
It might be a 60-40 Republican district, but it was a 51% Trump district in 2016, which basically held true on Tuesday, even with an extremely, highly motivated Democrat voting base. In the best electoral test yet, Trump's base held.
This is obviously the kind of district where Hillary's "Shocked Victorian Virgin Act" played well in 2016 among squishy Republican women. It is also the kind of district where-if an erosion in Trump's support exists-that you would expect to see that erosion.
If any pundit had been told ahead of time that Trump would drop 10 points from Romney's 2012 in Georgia's 6th, there is no way that you could have extrapolated a Trump win.
With that drop in suburban support, there is no way that he wins Florida or NC and he would likely lose Georgia.
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:15 pm
by silverscreenselect
Spock wrote: It might be a 60-40 Republican district, but it was a 51% Trump district in 2016, which basically held true on Tuesday, even with an extremely, highly motivated Democrat voting base. In the best electoral test yet, Trump's base held.
A political newcomer outperforms four seasoned Republican politicians combined and that's "Trump's base held." Coming one week after a Republican in Kansas dropped 20 points from Trump's support in that district. Here in Georgia, no one thought any Democrat had a chance when qualification closed. Frankly, it's very difficult for anyone to get a 50+% majority in a field with 18 candidates.
It tells you something that when the closest Republican finishes almost 30 points behind a Democrat that the Trump noise machine is trying to promote that as a big win.
I don't expect Ossoff to run away with this, and a lot is going to depend on who turns out, but it would be a mistake to assume that everyone who didn't vote for Ossoff (or one of the other four Democrats) will automatically vote for Handel. She has made a lot of political enemies in the Republican party over the last decade. Plus, Ossoff hasn't done any negative campaigning. You can expect him to hone in on some of her weaknesses in a 1 on 1 showdown.
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:32 pm
by flockofseagulls104
silverscreenselect wrote:Spock wrote: It might be a 60-40 Republican district, but it was a 51% Trump district in 2016, which basically held true on Tuesday, even with an extremely, highly motivated Democrat voting base. In the best electoral test yet, Trump's base held.
A political newcomer outperforms four seasoned Republican politicians combined and that's "Trump's base held." Coming one week after a Republican in Kansas dropped 20 points from Trump's support in that district. Here in Georgia, no one thought any Democrat had a chance when qualification closed. Frankly, it's very difficult for anyone to get a 50+% majority in a field with 18 candidates.
It tells you something that when the closest Republican finishes almost 30 points behind a Democrat that the Trump noise machine is trying to promote that as a big win.
I don't expect Ossoff to run away with this, and a lot is going to depend on who turns out, but it would be a mistake to assume that everyone who didn't vote for Ossoff (or one of the other four Democrats) will automatically vote for Handel. She has made a lot of political enemies in the Republican party over the last decade. Plus, Ossoff hasn't done any negative campaigning. You can expect him to hone in on some of her weaknesses in a 1 on 1 showdown.
A political newcomer with millions of dollars spent to get him to win and hype hype hype, and he lost. Face it. He didn't do what he was supposed to do. Learn something from it.
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:39 pm
by earendel
flockofseagulls104 wrote:silverscreenselect wrote:Spock wrote: It might be a 60-40 Republican district, but it was a 51% Trump district in 2016, which basically held true on Tuesday, even with an extremely, highly motivated Democrat voting base. In the best electoral test yet, Trump's base held.
A political newcomer outperforms four seasoned Republican politicians combined and that's "Trump's base held." Coming one week after a Republican in Kansas dropped 20 points from Trump's support in that district. Here in Georgia, no one thought any Democrat had a chance when qualification closed. Frankly, it's very difficult for anyone to get a 50+% majority in a field with 18 candidates.
It tells you something that when the closest Republican finishes almost 30 points behind a Democrat that the Trump noise machine is trying to promote that as a big win.
I don't expect Ossoff to run away with this, and a lot is going to depend on who turns out, but it would be a mistake to assume that everyone who didn't vote for Ossoff (or one of the other four Democrats) will automatically vote for Handel. She has made a lot of political enemies in the Republican party over the last decade. Plus, Ossoff hasn't done any negative campaigning. You can expect him to hone in on some of her weaknesses in a 1 on 1 showdown.
A political newcomer with millions of dollars spent to get him to win and hype hype hype, and he lost. Face it. He didn't do what he was supposed to do. Learn something from it.
He didn't lose. At least not yet.
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:47 pm
by flockofseagulls104
earendel wrote:flockofseagulls104 wrote:silverscreenselect wrote:
A political newcomer outperforms four seasoned Republican politicians combined and that's "Trump's base held." Coming one week after a Republican in Kansas dropped 20 points from Trump's support in that district. Here in Georgia, no one thought any Democrat had a chance when qualification closed. Frankly, it's very difficult for anyone to get a 50+% majority in a field with 18 candidates.
It tells you something that when the closest Republican finishes almost 30 points behind a Democrat that the Trump noise machine is trying to promote that as a big win.
I don't expect Ossoff to run away with this, and a lot is going to depend on who turns out, but it would be a mistake to assume that everyone who didn't vote for Ossoff (or one of the other four Democrats) will automatically vote for Handel. She has made a lot of political enemies in the Republican party over the last decade. Plus, Ossoff hasn't done any negative campaigning. You can expect him to hone in on some of her weaknesses in a 1 on 1 showdown.
A political newcomer with millions of dollars spent to get him to win and hype hype hype, and he lost. Face it. He didn't do what he was supposed to do. Learn something from it.
He didn't lose. At least not yet.
He faced 18 repubs, none of whom spent any money. He spent 8 million from outside the district and got all kinds of media and celebrity hype and still did not get the majority. The dems are lying to themselves. But they will pour more money and hype into this in June, and even if they win, so what? Who is this guy? Is he the second coming of the Messiah? No, he is just the dem who ran in the primary in this one district that the dems were praying they could use as a flag to wave around. It will not change anything.
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:55 pm
by Spock
Re: Kansas 4th
I am probably showing my age here, but I still think of the Wichita based district as Dan Glickman's seat. He was the Democrat who held it for 18 years, until he lost in 1994.
I think it is kind of funny that you guys are prouder than a peacock that you only lost the district, in what may be fluky circumstances, by 7 points, when-if your frame of reference is longer than 5 minutes-you notice that the Democrats used to win it as a matter of course.
I think we all can agree, that even if the Democrat had won the seat-he probably would have only lasted until the next general.
,
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:03 pm
by earendel
flockofseagulls104 wrote:earendel wrote: He didn't lose. At least not yet.
He faced 18 repubs, none of whom spent any money. He spent 8 million from outside the district and got all kinds of media and celebrity hype and still did not get the majority. The dems are lying to themselves. But they will pour more money and hype into this in June, and even if they win, so what? Who is this guy? Is he the second coming of the Messiah? No, he is just the dem who ran in the primary in this one district that the dems were praying they could use as a flag to wave around. It will not change anything.
I believe the Democrats are hoping that, should Ossoff win, it would "send a message" to other Democrats that they might win, and also a message to Republicans that getting too close to the president can be a recipe for electoral disaster. I don't happen to think that's the case, particularly given the electoral map for 2018.
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:19 pm
by Bob78164
earendel wrote:flockofseagulls104 wrote:earendel wrote: He didn't lose. At least not yet.
He faced 18 repubs, none of whom spent any money. He spent 8 million from outside the district and got all kinds of media and celebrity hype and still did not get the majority. The dems are lying to themselves. But they will pour more money and hype into this in June, and even if they win, so what? Who is this guy? Is he the second coming of the Messiah? No, he is just the dem who ran in the primary in this one district that the dems were praying they could use as a flag to wave around. It will not change anything.
I believe the Democrats are hoping that, should Ossoff win, it would "send a message" to other Democrats that they might win, and also a message to Republicans that getting too close to the president can be a recipe for electoral disaster. I don't happen to think that's the case, particularly given the electoral map for 2018.
A poll out today has Ted Cruz trailing Castro by 6 points for the Texas Senate seat, and tied with Beto O'Rourke. Maybe the Senate map isn't quite as unfavorable for Democrats as most of us (myself included) had assumed.
Jason Chaffetz has announced that he is not running for reelection. --Bob
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:39 pm
by silverscreenselect
flockofseagulls104 wrote: He faced 18 repubs, none of whom spent any money. He spent 8 million from outside the district and got all kinds of media and celebrity hype and still did not get the majority.
Flock, you weren't here, so you don't know who spent what. The last couple of weeks there were just as many pro-Republican candidate and anti-Ossoff ads as there were for him. And the various Republican PACS started spending money on anti-Ossoff TV commercials two months ago (the Han Solo ad). In retrospect, those anti-Ossoff ads were probably helpful in boosting his name recognition in the early stages, but it's not as if the Republicans were relying solely on Donald Trump's tweets to boost support for their candidates.
And even though he got a lot of out-of-district support, he and his volunteers spent a lot of time hitting the pavements and working the phone lines. Being that close to a win is likely going to spur their efforts next time, which is why the Republicans are trying to paint this as a loss. There's also a good bit of bad blood among the various Republicans, a lot of whom don't like Karen Handel, who in turn doesn't like Donald Trump.
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:51 pm
by Bob Juch
flockofseagulls104 wrote:earendel wrote:flockofseagulls104 wrote:
A political newcomer with millions of dollars spent to get him to win and hype hype hype, and he lost. Face it. He didn't do what he was supposed to do. Learn something from it.
He didn't lose. At least not yet.
He faced 18 repubs, none of whom spent any money. He spent 8 million from outside the district and got all kinds of media and celebrity hype and still did not get the majority. The dems are lying to themselves. But they will pour more money and hype into this in June, and even if they win, so what? Who is this guy? Is he the second coming of the Messiah? No, he is just the dem who ran in the primary in this one district that the dems were praying they could use as a flag to wave around. It will not change anything.
Karen Handel got and spent a lot of money.
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:57 pm
by Spock
Bob78164 wrote:earendel wrote:flockofseagulls104 wrote:
He faced 18 repubs, none of whom spent any money. He spent 8 million from outside the district and got all kinds of media and celebrity hype and still did not get the majority. The dems are lying to themselves. But they will pour more money and hype into this in June, and even if they win, so what? Who is this guy? Is he the second coming of the Messiah? No, he is just the dem who ran in the primary in this one district that the dems were praying they could use as a flag to wave around. It will not change anything.
I believe the Democrats are hoping that, should Ossoff win, it would "send a message" to other Democrats that they might win, and also a message to Republicans that getting too close to the president can be a recipe for electoral disaster. I don't happen to think that's the case, particularly given the electoral map for 2018.
A poll out today has Ted Cruz trailing Castro by 6 points for the Texas Senate seat, and tied with Beto O'Rourke. Maybe the Senate map isn't quite as unfavorable for Democrats as most of us (myself included) had assumed.
Please don't tell me that you are starting to follow (and place your hopes) on polls in Texas taken a year and a half out that show the Democrat winning.
It is certainly possible, but I am placing that into the category of things that I am not going to worry about for awhile.
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:22 pm
by Bob Juch
Spock wrote:Bob78164 wrote:earendel wrote:
I believe the Democrats are hoping that, should Ossoff win, it would "send a message" to other Democrats that they might win, and also a message to Republicans that getting too close to the president can be a recipe for electoral disaster. I don't happen to think that's the case, particularly given the electoral map for 2018.
A poll out today has Ted Cruz trailing Castro by 6 points for the Texas Senate seat, and tied with Beto O'Rourke. Maybe the Senate map isn't quite as unfavorable for Democrats as most of us (myself included) had assumed.
Please don't tell me that you are starting to follow (and place your hopes) on polls in Texas taken a year and a half out that show the Democrat winning.
It is certainly possible, but I am placing that into the category of things that I am not going to worry about for awhile.
Yes, we don't know how messy Trump's impeachment will be.
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:04 pm
by flockofseagulls104
Bob Juch wrote:Spock wrote:Bob78164 wrote:A poll out today has Ted Cruz trailing Castro by 6 points for the Texas Senate seat, and tied with Beto O'Rourke. Maybe the Senate map isn't quite as unfavorable for Democrats as most of us (myself included) had assumed.
Please don't tell me that you are starting to follow (and place your hopes) on polls in Texas taken a year and a half out that show the Democrat winning.
It is certainly possible, but I am placing that into the category of things that I am not going to worry about for awhile.
Yes, we don't know how messy Trump's impeachment will be.
Well, Ted might as well be packing his bags right now. We all know how dead-on accurate polls are. Either way, when His Majesty Jon Ossoff is proclaimed King of the world, he'll just kick Ted out of the senate anyway. It should happen any day now, since he pulled off such a stunning victory in Georgia yesterday.
Re: I Voted for Jon Ossoff
Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:24 am
by Bob Juch
Georgia’s Republican Secretary of State, Brian Kemp, is trying to prevent newly registered voters from participating in the 6th Congressional District runoff election between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel, and at least five groups are suing to stop him.
The National Voter Registration Act clearly states that the earliest deadline for voter registration is 30 days before a federal election. With the runoff election set for June 20, however, Kemp has declared that 6th District residents will only be eligible to vote if registered by March 20 — 92 days before the election, or 62 days longer than legally permitted.