WWTBAM Bored

A home for the weary.
It is currently Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:27 pm

All times are UTC - 6 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 30 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:25 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 8:01 pm
Posts: 2286
"Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign" is an inside view of the Clinton campaign.

Of the many post-election books-this one seems to be breaking through the noise and shows from an inside perspective, just how bad the Clinton campaign was run.

Michael Barone's take:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/hilla ... le/2620595

The New York Times take:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/book ... .html?_r=0

Pull quote from the NYT
>>In fact, the portrait of the Clinton campaign that emerges from these pages is that of a Titanic-like disaster: an epic fail made up of a series of perverse and often avoidable missteps by an out-of-touch candidate and her strife-ridden staff that turned “a winnable race” into “another iceberg-seeking campaign ship.”<<<<


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:36 pm 
Offline
Bored Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 12:02 pm
Posts: 15797
Location: By the phone
No real news here. She's a crappy campaigner, which is why I voted for Obama in the 2008 primary.

But she's much better at the actual work of governing. The last three months have been an object lesson in how important the latter task is. --Bob

_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:01 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 8:01 pm
Posts: 2286
Bob78164 wrote:
No real news here. She's a crappy campaigner, which is why I voted for Obama in the 2008 primary.

But she's much better at the actual work of governing.


Fortunately, in my view, we will never get to see how "Great" she is at governing.

Per "Shattered"-I am most interested in reading the stuff about Mook's data analysis models and so forth. Since you said there is really nothing new here-can you recommend other previous works on that subject?


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:34 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 5:35 pm
Posts: 7245
Location: City of Champions Once More (Well, in spirit)!!!!
Oh man!

I could have written that book...and I had no access to the insiders.

I was warning over-confident Hillary supporters from the get-go that they were way too confident...that if Hillary was going to rely on a message of "I'm not Donald Trump" and hope the demographics Obama won were going to carry her over the top, she stood a good chance to lose.

I only changed my tune once- when the "pussy-grabbing" tape game out. I thought for sure that would sink Trump...but I underestimated how voter discontent with the status quo and hatred of Clinton as a person would override that.

_________________
1979 City of Champions 2009


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:42 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 8:01 pm
Posts: 2286
Bob78164 wrote:
No real news here. She's a crappy campaigner, which is why I voted for Obama in the 2008 primary.

But she's much better at the actual work of governing. The last three months have been an object lesson in how important the latter task is. --Bob


I totally agree that she is a crappy campaigner-You could not be more wooden than she is.

However, if she is so great at governing, why did the organizational side(The "Governing" side, if you will) of her campaign suck so bad? Simply put, the muddled organizational chart of her campaign certainly calls into question her "governing" skills.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:00 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:07 pm
Posts: 2992
Location: Lacey, Washington
Quote:
But she's much better at the actual work of governing


Oh really? And what can you possibly base that opinion on?

But maybe you'll end up getting her anyway. When they impeach Trump for being pals with Putin and negate the results of the election and declare her the winner. But I don't hear much about that anymore. Still could happen, right? Or maybe His Majesty Jon Ossoff will be appointed President.

You guys are so over the top, and you don't even know that half the country is on to you.

_________________
Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:32 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 5:35 pm
Posts: 7245
Location: City of Champions Once More (Well, in spirit)!!!!
Bob78164 wrote:
But she's much better at the actual work of governing. The last three months have been an object lesson in how important the latter task is. --Bob


I'm no Trump fan, but where do you get the idea she would be any good at the actual work of governing?

Her only exec experience was the State Department, which I wouldn't say was a well-oiled machine when she ran it.

Better than Trump? Probably.

Better as in good? Not 100% certain on that.

_________________
1979 City of Champions 2009


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:25 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 9:31 am
Posts: 5840
Location: Montana
Quote:
I'm no Trump fan, but where do you get the idea she would be any good at the actual work of governing?


lol - need you ask?

_________________
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself. And clowns.

Rick Castle is dreamy.
Image


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:05 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 8:01 pm
Posts: 2286
Jeemie wrote:
Oh man!

I could have written that book...and I had no access to the insiders.

I was warning over-confident Hillary supporters from the get-go that they were way too confident...that if Hillary was going to rely on a message of "I'm not Donald Trump" and hope the demographics Obama won were going to carry her over the top, she stood a good chance to lose.

I only changed my tune once- when the "pussy-grabbing" tape game out. I thought for sure that would sink Trump...but I underestimated how voter discontent with the status quo and hatred of Clinton as a person would override that.


I have said variations of this before, but I think the worst thing that happened to the Clinton Campaign is that they dug up the "Pussy-Grabbing" tape.

They obviously sat on it for awhile and they "KNEW" beyond a shadow of a doubt, that once they dropped that tape, the election was over.

The biggest strategic decision over the last weeks/months of the campaign was when to drop the tape. They didn't have to worry about Wisconsin-etc because they had the tape.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:20 pm 
Offline
Bored Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 12:02 pm
Posts: 15797
Location: By the phone
Spock wrote:
Jeemie wrote:
Oh man!

I could have written that book...and I had no access to the insiders.

I was warning over-confident Hillary supporters from the get-go that they were way too confident...that if Hillary was going to rely on a message of "I'm not Donald Trump" and hope the demographics Obama won were going to carry her over the top, she stood a good chance to lose.

I only changed my tune once- when the "pussy-grabbing" tape game out. I thought for sure that would sink Trump...but I underestimated how voter discontent with the status quo and hatred of Clinton as a person would override that.


I have said variations of this before, but I think the worst thing that happened to the Clinton Campaign is that they dug up the "Pussy-Grabbing" tape.

They obviously sat on it for awhile and they "KNEW" beyond a shadow of a doubt, that once they dropped that tape, the election was over.

The biggest strategic decision over the last weeks/months of the campaign was when to drop the tape. They didn't have to worry about Wisconsin-etc because they had the tape.
As I recall, the New York Times sat on it for quite a while because they weren't comfortable it was adequately authenticated. Once the Washington Post got it, it took them less than a day.

I really don't think the Clinton campaign had control over the tape, and I'm not close to persuaded they knew about it before it went public.

As for why I think she'd have been good at governing, her policy positions on her Web site were reasonably detailed and were well thought out. --Bob

_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:28 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:07 pm
Posts: 2992
Location: Lacey, Washington
Quote:
As for why I think she'd have been good at governing, her policy positions on her Web site were reasonably detailed and were well thought out. --Bob


Here it is.... Wait for it....

So were Hitler's.

_________________
Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:33 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 5:35 pm
Posts: 7245
Location: City of Champions Once More (Well, in spirit)!!!!
Bob78164 wrote:
As for why I think she'd have been good at governing, her policy positions on her Web site were reasonably detailed and were well thought out. --Bob


You can be a wonk and yet be terrible at governing.

It's actually rare when a wonk is also good at the nuts and bolts of governing.

_________________
1979 City of Champions 2009


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:34 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 5:35 pm
Posts: 7245
Location: City of Champions Once More (Well, in spirit)!!!!
flockofseagulls104 wrote:
Quote:
As for why I think she'd have been good at governing, her policy positions on her Web site were reasonably detailed and were well thought out. --Bob


Here it is.... Wait for it....

So were Hitler's.


Well, this was immensely stupid.

You win the First Annual Sean Spicer Award for Complete Idiocy.

Hold it up high.

_________________
1979 City of Champions 2009


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:39 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2007 2:36 pm
Posts: 3494
Location: Texas
flockofseagulls104 wrote:
Quote:
As for why I think she'd have been good at governing, her policy positions on her Web site were reasonably detailed and were well thought out. --Bob


Here it is.... Wait for it....

So were Hitler's.

In the future there may be a version of Godwin's Law about mentioning Trump in an argument.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:48 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:07 pm
Posts: 2992
Location: Lacey, Washington
Jeemie wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:
Quote:
As for why I think she'd have been good at governing, her policy positions on her Web site were reasonably detailed and were well thought out. --Bob


Here it is.... Wait for it....

So were Hitler's.


Well, this was immensely stupid.

You win the First Annual Sean Spicer Award for Complete Idiocy.

Hold it up high.

This is right on the mark, unlike Spicer's comment.

Although I am honored, it is bobby boy who should get this award.

His policy positions were very detailed in his famous book. And he obviously had a lot of time to think them out. Hillary's policies may have been detailed and well thought out, but me, for one, and millions of others, did not want them to be implemented. Just because someone announces well thought out and detailed policies does not mean they should be given power.

_________________
Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:50 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:07 pm
Posts: 2992
Location: Lacey, Washington
elwoodblues wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:
Quote:
As for why I think she'd have been good at governing, her policy positions on her Web site were reasonably detailed and were well thought out. --Bob


Here it is.... Wait for it....

So were Hitler's.

In the future there may be a version of Godwin's Law about mentioning Trump in an argument.


Or an unsolicited post from a left wing propaganda site critical of some stupid thing they allege he said or think he meant by what he said.

REC

_________________
Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:04 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2007 2:36 pm
Posts: 3494
Location: Texas
flockofseagulls104 wrote:
Jeemie wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:

Here it is.... Wait for it....

So were Hitler's.


Well, this was immensely stupid.

You win the First Annual Sean Spicer Award for Complete Idiocy.

Hold it up high.

This is right on the mark, unlike Spicer's comment.

Although I am honored, it is bobby boy who should get this award.

His policy positions were very detailed in his famous book. And he obviously had a lot of time to think them out. Hillary's policies may have been detailed and well thought out, but me, for one, and millions of others, did not want them to be implemented. Just because someone announces well thought out and detailed policies does not mean they should be given power.

It is an honor just to be nominated.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:43 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 5:35 pm
Posts: 7245
Location: City of Champions Once More (Well, in spirit)!!!!
Flock doubled down on Stupid.

Why am I not surprised?

He's the Bob Juch of the Right.

_________________
1979 City of Champions 2009


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:27 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 8:01 pm
Posts: 2286
I skipped ahead to the chapter on Election Night which contains my favorite words of the English language.

As returns came in from Florida-Mook and Kriegel were realizing something.

"Their vaunted model was way off in Florida."

I love the smell of a burning model in the evening.

It is like a fine wine when models of the smartest people in the world fall apart at the first brush with reality.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:36 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 5:35 pm
Posts: 7245
Location: City of Champions Once More (Well, in spirit)!!!!
Spock wrote:
I skipped ahead to the chapter on Election Night which contains my favorite words of the English language.

As returns came in from Florida-Mook and Kriegel were realizing something.

"Their vaunted model was way off in Florida."

I love the smell of a burning model in the evening.

It is like a fine wine when models of the smartest people in the world fall apart at the first brush with reality.


Use shit data...will get shit model.

Sort of like the quants who priced and risked MBS' and CDOs

_________________
1979 City of Champions 2009


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:54 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:07 pm
Posts: 2992
Location: Lacey, Washington
Jeemie wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:
Quote:
As for why I think she'd have been good at governing, her policy positions on her Web site were reasonably detailed and were well thought out. --Bob


Here it is.... Wait for it....

So were Hitler's.


Well, this was immensely stupid.

You win the First Annual Sean Spicer Award for Complete Idiocy.

Hold it up high.

It's still early in the year. Hope it holds up. I'll bet it's like the Nobel Prize. Only people of one political view can win it. If that isn't the case, BJ will be a shoo-in to pass me up. Probably tomorrow.

_________________
Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:57 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:07 pm
Posts: 2992
Location: Lacey, Washington
Jeemie wrote:
Flock doubled down on Stupid.

Why am I not surprised?

He's the Bob Juch of the Right.


Can't be. I use words that have more than 5 letters sometimes.

_________________
Arkansas Gulls -2007 BBBL Champions


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:59 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 8:01 pm
Posts: 2286
Jeemie wrote:
Spock wrote:
I skipped ahead to the chapter on Election Night which contains my favorite words of the English language.

As returns came in from Florida-Mook and Kriegel were realizing something.

"Their vaunted model was way off in Florida."

I love the smell of a burning model in the evening.

It is like a fine wine when models of the smartest people in the world fall apart at the first brush with reality.


Use shit data...will get shit model.

Sort of like the quants who priced and risked MBS' and CDOs


In my appraisal world, I walked, and became familiar, with the line between quantitative and qualitative analysis. Obviously, quant analysis has its place, but I have much less respect for the quant world because of that experience.

So when I read this paragraph from "Shattered" my sympathies are with "Bill" (Clinton).

>>>"Bill thought the campaign manager was a capable operative but worried that the next-gen Mook was too invested in data to the exclusion of politics. Neither a traditional poll nor Mook’s preferred analytics— voter-behavior models based on surveys and demographic data— were as finely tuned as his own sense of political winds, Bill thought."<<<<<

Mook is presented as someone who always makes his decisions based on data. Well, sometimes the data isn't there and sometimes it isn't in a form you can quantify.

When Michigan Democrats started sending up alarm flares, the data that a quant would rely on might not be there, but qualitatively it was there, and staring them in the face.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:25 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 8:01 pm
Posts: 2286
Another fun "Shattered" paragraph on Mook and Bill that kind of points to why Hillary lost. The blindness of the smartest 30-year old quants in the world could not be more clear.

>>>Bill’s time on the ground only encouraged his skepticism of Mook’s reluctance to send him outside population centers. Having grown up in Arkansas, Bill understood that a major political player— could bridge ideological divides by just showing up in small towns that never got much attention from elected leaders.

He liked to go to small towns in northern New Hampshire,Appalachia, and rural Florida because he believed, from experience, that going to them and acknowledging he knew how they lived their lives, and the way they made decisions, put points on the board. Mook wanted Bill in places where the most Hillary-inclined voters would see him. That meant talking to white liberals and minorities in cities and their close-in suburbs.<<<


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:10 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 5:35 pm
Posts: 7245
Location: City of Champions Once More (Well, in spirit)!!!!
Spock wrote:
Another fun "Shattered" paragraph on Mook and Bill that kind of points to why Hillary lost. The blindness of the smartest 30-year old quants in the world could not be more clear.

>>>Bill’s time on the ground only encouraged his skepticism of Mook’s reluctance to send him outside population centers. Having grown up in Arkansas, Bill understood that a major political player— could bridge ideological divides by just showing up in small towns that never got much attention from elected leaders.

He liked to go to small towns in northern New Hampshire,Appalachia, and rural Florida because he believed, from experience, that going to them and acknowledging he knew how they lived their lives, and the way they made decisions, put points on the board. Mook wanted Bill in places where the most Hillary-inclined voters would see him. That meant talking to white liberals and minorities in cities and their close-in suburbs.<<<


This is my completely subjective appraisal of the Clintons...based on little more how I have seen them on TV and second-hand evidence from friends who have met them.

Bill is a consummate schmoozer...genuinely likes to talk to all kinds of people.

Hillary? Not so much...especially not to folks in the Rust Belt who might not be immediately inclined to like her. She just isn't a people person, and not all that warm.

So when a quant tells her and her team to campaign in areas where people will automatically like her and she doesn't have to really schmooze...her inclination is going to be to take that advice.

I can see now why the only election she ever won was as a Senator in a hugely liberal state.

_________________
1979 City of Champions 2009


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 30 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next

All times are UTC - 6 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Americanized by Maël Soucaze.