Transcript 04/28/08 Michael Kearney (MKearney)

[MarleysGh0st]

The ATA pattern you got there was interesting. You had a clear secondary spike. Could it be that the audience knew, as you pointed out, that Michener wrote books with geographical titles and was heavily motivated by that? And that only the people who really knew the right answer responded with Mailer? At that level, there's some danger in misanalyzing ATA results.

I guess that people look at ATA results in different ways.

With a 60% to 20% spread for the top two answers, I see no secondary spike and a clear indication that it is Michener. To me, secondary spikes occur on these lower dollar questions when the top answer is less than a majority, and the second chgoice is not that much less. There may have been instances on the show that are exceptions to my theory, where a contestant is "Dursted" by the audience based on such an overwhelming choice of a wrong answer.

The #1 choice doesn't have to be less than a majority to look for a secondary spike; it might have been a very obvious distractor, as Michael thought. I'd look for more a spread between the second choice and the third and fourth one, though; that would be an indication that nearly everyone (except for a small percentage who voted randomly) dismissed those choices and went with the obvious while those who really knew the answer caused the secondary spike. The 14% vote for Herman Wouk (who perhaps was a logical possibility, as the author of The Winds of War and The Caine Mutiny) was a bit high to make the vote for Mailer stand out.

But it's hard to judge these things when you know the answer.

[Weyoun]

A shame. It always bugged me that Nauru's capital was "Yaren district."

[TheConfessor]

I do hope that Mike sticks around here. I am curious about his thoughts while he is in the hot seat.

I haven't listened to it yet, but Mike did an interview with Steve Beverly which probably covers this topic.

I get a 404 on the second part.

The second part of the interview is now working. I just listened to it. To me, the most interesting tidbit was that Michael had an agreement with his PAF to give him 10% of his winnings (if I understood correctly what he said). It's not clear if this arrangement applied to all five PAFs, or whether the 10% was to be based on total winnings or on the value of the question that the PAF helped on, and whether there were any other contingencies, such as providing a correct answer to Michael, which he did, of course.

I'm not sure I've heard of anyone else on the show whose PAF was working on commission. When I was on years ago, some of the legal paperwork I signed seemed to prohibit such an arrangement. I think everyone on this board who has ever agreed to be a PAF was doing it for the love of the game and for any good karma that might come as a result. When money is introduced to the equation, it seems likely to open Pandora's Box, unleashing all sorts of potential misunderstandings and hard feelings. Like if the PAF answers the $500K question but the contestant misses the million dollar question, does the PAF get a payoff, and how much? If the PAF doesn't know the answer, but takes a wild guess and happens to be right, do you still owe him? If the contestant wins an annuity, is the PAF payoff also an annuity? I'm sure there are lots of ways for a PAF business deal to go sour.

Michael, I'm glad that it worked out for you and that you seem to have had a fun experience. You are certainly one of the most interesting and noteworthy players on the show in recent years. Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us on this board. By the way, were your tapings with Bush and Vieira on consecutive days, or did you have to go home and return to New York at a later date?

[NellyLunatic1980]

A shame. It always bugged me that Nauru's capital was "Yaren district."

After the question and the choices popped up and I went through my reasoning, I stopped my videotape and consulted my 2008 World Almanac. On the map and in the "Countries" section, the Almanac gave Yaren as the capital of Nauru. I was ready to cry foul until I went to Wikipedia, where Yaren was mentioned as only the de facto capital. Indeed, the Nauru article has a direct link to the CIA World Factbook. And the question did say "According to the CIA's World Factbook..."

But then again, why should we ever believe anything that comes out of the CIA?

[peacock2121]

I was expecting a different outcome - hence I was disappointed.

Nothing to do with Michael or how he played.

I am the one who made assumptions.

[peacock2121]

To me, the most interesting tidbit was that Michael had an agreement with his PAF to give him 10% of his winnings (if I understood correctly what he said).

I'd love to hear more about this.

[MarleysGh0st]

I was expecting a different outcome - hence I was disappointed.

Nothing to do with Michael or how he played.

I am the one who made assumptions.

Despite the strong prohibitions against the contestants revealing how they did in advance of the airing, you know that TPTB would have filled the airwaves with spoiler promos if the outcome had been as you expected.

[peacock2121]

I was expecting a different outcome - hence I was disappointed.

Nothing to do with Michael or how he played.

I am the one who made assumptions.

Despite the strong prohibitions against the contestants revealing how they did in advance of the airing, you know that TPTB would have filled the airwaves with spoiler promos if the outcome had been as you expected.

Not really.

I did not expect a million dollar winner. I did expect that he would see the $100,00 question and answer it correctly. I also probably thought he would get the next one correct as well.

I have no clue where I got that from and I know I made it up.

[earendel]

I was expecting a different outcome - hence I was disappointed.

Nothing to do with Michael or how he played.

I am the one who made assumptions.

Despite the strong prohibitions against the contestants revealing how they did in advance of the airing, you know that TPTB would have filled the airwaves with spoiler promos if the outcome had been as you expected.

Not really.

I did not expect a million dollar winner. I did expect that he would see the $100,00 question and answer it correctly. I also probably thought he would get the next one correct as well.

I have no clue where I got that from and I know I made it up.

Although I didn't think Michael had won the $1M, I, like Pea, thought he would go high into the stack, perhaps reaching the $500K question. Perhaps it was an expectation based on Michael's credentials.

[themanintheseersuckersuit]

I was expecting a different outcome - hence I was disappointed.

Nothing to do with Michael or how he played.

I am the one who made assumptions.

I (not very hard) tried to warn you.

viewtopic.php?t=5467

[peacock2121]

I was expecting a different outcome - hence I was disappointed.

Nothing to do with Michael or how he played.

I am the one who made assumptions.

I (not very hard) tried to warn you.

viewtopic.php?t=5467

Goodness gracious - that was way too oblique for me to get a warning from that!

You gotta kinda smack me up side the head with warnings for me to get them.

[kusch]

I am still waiting for the "rest of the story" on the 10% to the PAF that The Confessor mentioned.

[peacock2121]

I am still waiting for the "rest of the story" on the 10% to the PAF that The Confessor mentioned.

Hey Michael!

Could you tell us more about this?

[MKearney]

Truly, with my credentials, I figured I'd go farther too. It's the luck of the draw for the questions. I would've gone lifeline-free on every one of the stacks that I watched backstage for Billy Bush's week(with the exception of the Eames chair) Geography and History are the weaker areas, so I studied capitals and presidents...and got not-capitals and Supreme Court cases.

When I went up the stack, I saw pop culture early(Dilbert), then science....and thought...uh oh. There go my strongest subjects.

I did have to go home over the break. It was about five days between Billy and Meredith.

The PAF deal is this. I figure the PAF deserves something, and you don't just do it for love of the game. You are a LIFELINE, as in your friend will drown and lose if not for you. They deserve something more than a thanks. Also, having been one myself, it's really boring to sit by a phone for hours.

If your PAF gives you the correct answer, you give them 10% of whatever level they assisted you on, or whatever level you dropped to after missing.

If they can't really help, but give you a decent guess, it's 1%.

If they hose you, you spend your remaining money on a hitman.

[earendel]

Truly, with my credentials, I figured I'd go farther too. It's the luck of the draw for the questions. I would've gone lifeline-free on every one of the stacks that I watched backstage for Billy Bush's week(with the exception of the Eames chair) Geography and History are the weaker areas, so I studied capitals and presidents...and got not-capitals and Supreme Court cases.

When I went up the stack, I saw pop culture early(Dilbert), then science....and thought...uh oh. There go my strongest subjects.

Yes, it's all in the stack and you got some rough questions.

The PAF deal is this. I figure the PAF deserves something, and you don't just do it for love of the game. You are a LIFELINE, as in your friend will drown and lose if not for you. They deserve something more than a thanks. Also, having been one myself, it's really boring to sit by a phone for hours.

If your PAF gives you the correct answer, you give them 10% of whatever level they assisted you on, or whatever level you dropped to after missing.

If they can't really help, but give you a decent guess, it's 1%.

If they hose you, you spend your remaining money on a hitman.

Your game, your decision, but as several have said here, we volunteer as PAFs for the love of the game, not for any monetary consideration.

[christie1111]

If they hose you, you spend your remaining money on a hitman

Okay, someone with more time and a better memory should explain getting 'Dursted'.

[peacock2121]

Truly, with my credentials, I figured I'd go farther too. It's the luck of the draw for the questions. I would've gone lifeline-free on every one of the stacks that I watched backstage for Billy Bush's week(with the exception of the Eames chair) Geography and History are the weaker areas, so I studied capitals and presidents...and got not-capitals and Supreme Court cases.

When I went up the stack, I saw pop culture early(Dilbert), then science....and thought...uh oh. There go my strongest subjects.

I did have to go home over the break. It was about five days between Billy and Meredith.

The PAF deal is this. I figure the PAF deserves something, and you don't just do it for love of the game. You are a LIFELINE, as in your friend will drown and lose if not for you. They deserve something more than a thanks. Also, having been one myself, it's really boring to sit by a phone for hours.

If your PAF gives you the correct answer, you give them 10% of whatever level they assisted you on, or whatever level you dropped to after missing.

If they can't really help, but give you a decent guess, it's 1%.

If they hose you, you spend your remaining money on a hitman.

I am usually a fan of spelling out accountabilities and compensation. I am not in this case. I did have it all figured out in my head - what % I would share with my PaFs. I shared with all of them - not just Fishie (the one I called).

How did you structure the deal with the ones you did not call?

[jarnon]

Okay, someone with more time and a better memory should explain getting 'Dursted'.

From the Wikipedia article on Will Durst:

In 2000, Durst was used as a phone-a-friend lifeline on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire by contestant Rudy Reber. The question, worth $500,000, was "who directed Michael Jackson's music video for the song Bad". After hearing the choices, Durst said "Landis," as in director John Landis. Reber locked it in as his final answer, which was wrong. (Martin Scorsese was the correct answer). Reber lost $218,000. Durst later wrote an article for TV Guide on the incident.