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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:39 am 
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Obviously, predictions of the upcoming 2018 Democrat tidal wave are all over the internet on sites of all political stripes. I have no predictions as to whether this will happen or not.

I am trying to decide which Democrat tidal wave is/was more predicted.

1) The upcoming 2018 Democrat one?

or

2) The 2016 Democrat nuclear powered, earthquake-driven, tsunami tidal wave election.

Until, what, 8 PM election night? everybody was still predicting the Democrat 2016 tidal wave. Hillary was a no-brainer. EVERYBODY thought the senate was gone and, maybe even the house.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:12 am 
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Spock wrote:
Obviously, predictions of the upcoming 2018 Democrat tidal wave are all over the internet on sites of all political stripes. I have no predictions as to whether this will happen or not.

I am trying to decide which Democrat tidal wave is/was more predicted.

1) The upcoming 2018 Democrat one?

or

2) The 2016 Democrat nuclear powered, earthquake-driven, tsunami tidal wave election.

Until, what, 8 PM election night? everybody was still predicting the Democrat 2016 tidal wave. Hillary was a no-brainer. EVERYBODY thought the senate was gone and, maybe even the house.


Jon Ossoff can still come back and win. It's only right.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:14 am 
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Democrats are real good at winning the pre-election polling. Especially when they only interview democrats.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:43 am 
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The most predicted Democratic tidal wave in recent history was in 2008. They said if the GOP nominated Jesus Christ, they'd still lose.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:34 am 
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Spock wrote:
Obviously, predictions of the upcoming 2018 Democrat tidal wave are all over the internet on sites of all political stripes. I have no predictions as to whether this will happen or not.

I am trying to decide which Democrat tidal wave is/was more predicted.

1) The upcoming 2018 Democrat one?

or

2) The 2016 Democrat nuclear powered, earthquake-driven, tsunami tidal wave election.

Until, what, 8 PM election night? everybody was still predicting the Democrat 2016 tidal wave. Hillary was a no-brainer. EVERYBODY thought the senate was gone and, maybe even the house.


The likely outcome was a Clinton victory. Control of the Senate could have switched but EVERYONE thought that was about a 50-50 chance, and NO ONE thought the Dems would take the House. If you're trying to mock Democratic/progressive prognosticators, perhaps you should try to find more reliable ones. I think you are confusing loud cheerleading for erudite analysis. I hope you can tell the difference. {A problem which also exists in the Republican/Conservative camp.}


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:57 am 
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jarnon wrote:
The most predicted Democratic tidal wave in recent history was in 2008. They said if the GOP nominated Jesus Christ, they'd still lose.



Or the companion wave, given the 8 year party cycle that started with Bubba Clinton, the GOP could have nominated Donald Trump in 2016 and they'd still win....

lb13

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:08 pm 
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littlebeast13 wrote:
jarnon wrote:
The most predicted Democratic tidal wave in recent history was in 2008. They said if the GOP nominated Jesus Christ, they'd still lose.



Or the companion wave, given the 8 year party cycle that started with Bubba Clinton, the GOP could have nominated Donald Trump in 2016 and they'd still win....

lb13
2008 was a once-in-a-generation disaster for the party in power. Gore came close in 2000, and a Democratic candidate other than Clinton or Sanders could have beaten Trump.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:26 pm 
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Spock wrote:
Obviously, predictions of the upcoming 2018 Democrat tidal wave are all over the internet on sites of all political stripes. I have no predictions as to whether this will happen or not.

I am trying to decide which Democrat tidal wave is/was more predicted.

1) The upcoming 2018 Democrat one?

or

2) The 2016 Democrat nuclear powered, earthquake-driven, tsunami tidal wave election.

Until, what, 8 PM election night? everybody was still predicting the Democrat 2016 tidal wave. Hillary was a no-brainer. EVERYBODY thought the senate was gone and, maybe even the house.
You obviously don't read Nate Silver's site. Days before the election, Harry Enten published a story there entitled, "Trump Is Only a Normal Polling Error Away from Winning." Nate was appropriately cautious about the upcoming election, and even described four scenarios, one of which turned out to be pretty much what happened in the actual election.

Over the course of the last year, Nate published a long series critiquing press coverage of the 2016 presidential election. The premise, which he established with examples, was that most of the mainstream press was (at least in its writing) seriously overconfident about the chance of a Clinton victory. He then examined the sources of that overconfidence -- mostly, the inability to understand uncertainty and the limits of polling.

Enten published a very similar headline about Doug Jones shortly before the Alabama special election. But for my money, the most predicted waves in history occurred in 1974 and, before that, in 1932. --Bob

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:11 pm 
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Bob78164 wrote:
You obviously don't read Nate Silver's site. Days before the election, Harry Enten published a story there entitled, "Trump Is Only a Normal Polling Error Away from Winning." Nate was appropriately cautious about the upcoming election, and even described four scenarios, one of which turned out to be pretty much what happened in the actual election.

Over the course of the last year, Nate published a long series critiquing press coverage of the 2016 presidential election. The premise, which he established with examples, was that most of the mainstream press was (at least in its writing) seriously overconfident about the chance of a Clinton victory. He then examined the sources of that overconfidence -- mostly, the inability to understand uncertainty and the limits of polling.

Enten published a very similar headline about Doug Jones shortly before the Alabama special election. But for my money, the most predicted waves in history occurred in 1974 and, before that, in 1932. --Bob


And most of the national popular vote projections in 2016 were fairly accurate.

All of the election results so far this year have skewed in the Democrats' favor, even when they weren't winning special Congressional elections in heavily Republican districts this summer. But now, the Democrats picked up at least 15 seats in the Virginia House as well as winning the Alabama Senate seat. And the Alabama loss isn't only because Roy Moore was a bad candidate. In a normal year, he still would have won by double digits.

It will be tough for Democrats to win the two Senate seats they need, but with tossups in Arizona and Nevada, it's doable, and it's possible if another open seat occurs in Mississippi, the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).

As for the House, the Republicans have several dozen seats that could swing with anything approaching the numbers that have occurred so far.

Unless Trump does something to make himself considerably more palatable to the 60% or so who disapprove of him, it's hard to see anything moving the needle much in his favor and most of the likely scenarios, such as more indictments and arrests, definitely won't help him.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:27 pm 
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jarnon wrote:
littlebeast13 wrote:
jarnon wrote:
The most predicted Democratic tidal wave in recent history was in 2008. They said if the GOP nominated Jesus Christ, they'd still lose.



Or the companion wave, given the 8 year party cycle that started with Bubba Clinton, the GOP could have nominated Donald Trump in 2016 and they'd still win....

lb13
2008 was a once-in-a-generation disaster for the party in power. Gore came close in 2000, and a Democratic candidate other than Clinton or Sanders could have beaten Trump.

No, the crash of 2008 would not have happened with better economic policies.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:59 pm 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
You obviously don't read Nate Silver's site. Days before the election, Harry Enten published a story there entitled, "Trump Is Only a Normal Polling Error Away from Winning." Nate was appropriately cautious about the upcoming election, and even described four scenarios, one of which turned out to be pretty much what happened in the actual election.

Over the course of the last year, Nate published a long series critiquing press coverage of the 2016 presidential election. The premise, which he established with examples, was that most of the mainstream press was (at least in its writing) seriously overconfident about the chance of a Clinton victory. He then examined the sources of that overconfidence -- mostly, the inability to understand uncertainty and the limits of polling.

Enten published a very similar headline about Doug Jones shortly before the Alabama special election. But for my money, the most predicted waves in history occurred in 1974 and, before that, in 1932. --Bob


And most of the national popular vote projections in 2016 were fairly accurate.

All of the election results so far this year have skewed in the Democrats' favor, even when they weren't winning special Congressional elections in heavily Republican districts this summer. But now, the Democrats picked up at least 15 seats in the Virginia House as well as winning the Alabama Senate seat. And the Alabama loss isn't only because Roy Moore was a bad candidate. In a normal year, he still would have won by double digits.

It will be tough for Democrats to win the two Senate seats they need, but with tossups in Arizona and Nevada, it's doable, and it's possible if another open seat occurs in Mississippi, the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).

As for the House, the Republicans have several dozen seats that could swing with anything approaching the numbers that have occurred so far.

Unless Trump does something to make himself considerably more palatable to the 60% or so who disapprove of him, it's hard to see anything moving the needle much in his favor and most of the likely scenarios, such as more indictments and arrests, definitely won't help him.


Most people who are looking at Senate projections range from Indiana being "vulnerable" for Democrats, to thinking it will stay Democratic.

I hate to say it, but I disagree.

Joe Donnelly is a smart and sensible politician, and he shows a good nose for placating conservative voters, but there's too much anger here. It's hard for people who are not from around here to see how it could be happening, but there's a large percentage of Hoosiers who are buying every bit of the Trump camp's paranoia -- he's only failing because everybody's against him, etc. The cognitive dissonance is stunning. But the anti-Trump forces aren't helping by casting everything he does or says as stupid and/or evil; and casting all Trump voters as racist dolts. The only possible outcome from that is Trump voters digging in their heels and refusing to see anything other than what they want to see.

I read a poll today that said that 42% of the Republicans surveyed believed that Trump repealed Obamacare this year. FDSN.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:02 pm 
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Oh, and by the way, there are two Republican candidates running to oppose Donnelly in 2018. Both of them are decent people -- one of them an establishment Republican, and the other a more radical conservative. But neither of them is stupid (as Mourdock was) and neither of them is likely to have skeletons the size of Roy Moore's. I think Donnelly will lose by double digits.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:43 pm 
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mrkelley23 wrote:
Oh, and by the way, there are two Republican candidates running to oppose Donnelly in 2018. Both of them are decent people -- one of them an establishment Republican, and the other a more radical conservative. But neither of them is stupid (as Mourdock was) and neither of them is likely to have skeletons the size of Roy Moore's. I think Donnelly will lose by double digits.


I knew nothing about this race until these posts but I did a quick lookup. Here's what CNN has to say:

Quote:
Neither of the two Republicans running against Donnelly -- Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita -- are likely to make such a mistake in 2018.

However, this primary battle will be nasty and personal. Rokita and Messer have already called each other "unhinged." Rokita attacked Messer for moving his family to Washington after being elected to Congress, and criticized a contract Messer's wife has for part-time legal work for the city of Fishers. Already, it has split Trump world, with Trump supporters in the state backing Rokita while Pence's allies are behind Messer. Democrats' hope is that their fight leaves the winner politically damaged headed into the fall.


An article this summer from the Indianapolis Star on the race says pretty much the same thing:

https://www.indystar.com/story/opinion/ ... 104718544/

One big question in a lot of Senate races next year will be to what extent Trump gets involved, and, whether he endorses anyone in the primary or not.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:06 am 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
mrkelley23 wrote:
Oh, and by the way, there are two Republican candidates running to oppose Donnelly in 2018. Both of them are decent people -- one of them an establishment Republican, and the other a more radical conservative. But neither of them is stupid (as Mourdock was) and neither of them is likely to have skeletons the size of Roy Moore's. I think Donnelly will lose by double digits.


I knew nothing about this race until these posts but I did a quick lookup. Here's what CNN has to say:

Quote:
Neither of the two Republicans running against Donnelly -- Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita -- are likely to make such a mistake in 2018.

However, this primary battle will be nasty and personal. Rokita and Messer have already called each other "unhinged." Rokita attacked Messer for moving his family to Washington after being elected to Congress, and criticized a contract Messer's wife has for part-time legal work for the city of Fishers. Already, it has split Trump world, with Trump supporters in the state backing Rokita while Pence's allies are behind Messer. Democrats' hope is that their fight leaves the winner politically damaged headed into the fall.


An article this summer from the Indianapolis Star on the race says pretty much the same thing:

https://www.indystar.com/story/opinion/ ... 104718544/

One big question in a lot of Senate races next year will be to what extent Trump gets involved, and, whether he endorses anyone in the primary or not.


I agree with CNN's analysis, basically, but things would have to break almost as crazy as the electoral college did in 2016 for it to damage either one enough. I'll analyze again in April, after the damage has been done, but my prediction stands. I think the Democrats need to pick up three seats, not two, to take the Senate in 2018.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:22 am 
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Actually, I think the most predicted Democratic wave in history was the Watergate Babies of 1974 -- a group of mostly young enthusiastic congresspeople who won 50 Republican-held seats -- but, that may just be me.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:33 pm 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).


Lo, and behold, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the convicted felon former sheriff of Maricopa County, AZ, is running for Jeff Flake's open Senate seat. An early poll shows him neck and neck with Representative Martha McSally, a more establishment Republican candidate.

Joe's slogan:

"If you liked the child molester, you'll love the racist felon."

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:01 pm 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).


Lo, and behold, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the convicted felon former sheriff of Maricopa County, AZ, is running for Jeff Flake's open Senate seat. An early poll shows him neck and neck with Representative Martha McSally, a more establishment Republican candidate.

Joe's slogan:

"If you liked the child molester, you'll love the racist felon."
I think there's also a third credible candidate for the nomination, Kelli Ward, who might also face some difficulties in the general election. --Bob

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:41 pm 
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If predictions had any validity, we'd be under the Clinton regime right now. The thing is, the Trump haters are so all in with it, they really think everyone hates him as much as they do. Most of us roll our eyes at the true Trump haters. BJ thinks he's being cute when he regurgitates the trump bashes he comes across. It's just stupid. Trump's a jerk, but when you go around saying that everything he does is going to be the end of the world as we know it, eventually you lose credibility.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:09 am 
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flockofseagulls104 wrote:
If predictions had any validity, we'd be under the Clinton regime right now.


Nate Silver has written extensively about this at Fivethirtyeight.com. Leaving aside the fact that the statistical "predictions" were fairly accurate as far as Clinton winning the popular vote, Silver has pointed out that Trump's victory over Cllinton was within a normal polling error and was roughly the same degree of an upset as Doug Jones winning in Alabama (based on the polls immediately before the election). Similarly, polls in Virginia showed the Democratic candidate Northam with a three-point lead, which wound up being a nine-point win. Again, the order of magnitude of that error was about the same as the Trump and Jones errors.

That said, the Democratic lead as far as House races are concerned is considerably higher than the lead Hillary Clinton had. Of course, thing could change in the next ten months.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:04 pm 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).


And this time, we go to Missouri, where Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill (who has been extremely lucky in both her elections, last time beating Todd "legitimate rape" Akins) probably faces a tough fight. So now, the Republican governor of Missouri, Eric Greitens, who ran on a platform of ethics reform, stands accused of trying to blackmail a woman with whom he was having an affair. Greitens supposedly threatened to publish nude photos of her if she revealed the affair. The governor has admitted the affair but denied the blackmail.

Of course, Greitens isn't a candidate against McCaskill, but Republicans tend to circle the wagons when things like this happen, so there's a good chance this could snowball into something that engulfs a number of Republican politicians.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:57 pm 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).


Lo, and behold, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the convicted felon former sheriff of Maricopa County, AZ, is running for Jeff Flake's open Senate seat. An early poll shows him neck and neck with Representative Martha McSally, a more establishment Republican candidate.

Joe's slogan:

"If you liked the child molester, you'll love the racist felon."


Joe Arpaio today on Obama's birth certificate:

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/10/politics/ ... index.html

Some gifts just keep on giving.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:43 pm 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).


Lo, and behold, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the convicted felon former sheriff of Maricopa County, AZ, is running for Jeff Flake's open Senate seat. An early poll shows him neck and neck with Representative Martha McSally, a more establishment Republican candidate.

Joe's slogan:

"If you liked the child molester, you'll love the racist felon."


Joe Arpaio today on Obama's birth certificate:

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/10/politics/ ... index.html

Some gifts just keep on giving.

You have to keep those late-night comics employed.

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