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 Post subject: PA-18 special election
PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:25 pm 
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... ction.html

Conor Lamb (D) - 105,473
Rick Saccone (R) - 104,678
97% reporting as of 10:20 PM EDT

No way this is not going to a recount.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:49 pm 
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Pastor Fireball wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

Conor Lamb (D) - 105,473
Rick Saccone (R) - 104,678
97% reporting as of 10:20 PM EDT

No way this is not going to a recount.
With all precincts reporting: Lamb has 113,111, Saccone has 112,532, and Miller has 1372. --Bob

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:10 am 
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Bob78164 wrote:
Pastor Fireball wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

Conor Lamb (D) - 105,473
Rick Saccone (R) - 104,678
97% reporting as of 10:20 PM EDT

No way this is not going to a recount.
With all precincts reporting: Lamb has 113,111, Saccone has 112,532, and Miller has 1372. --Bob


That Libertarian might have given the entire race to Lamb. Again, there will certainly be recounts and court fights.

Let us also not lose sight of the fact that the 18th District will have new voters in November, as a result of the court's redistricting last month. Even if Lamb is certified the winner of this race, this area will become the new 14th District, which will shed southern Allegheny County and take in the heavily Republican Fayette County.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:09 am 
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Pastor Fireball wrote:
Let us also not lose sight of the fact that the 18th District will have new voters in November, as a result of the court's redistricting last month. Even if Lamb is certified the winner of this race, this area will become the new 14th District, which will shed southern Allegheny County and take in the heavily Republican Fayette County.


My understanding is that Lamb will probably run in the neighboring district (the 17th?), which will take in the Allegheny County voters and be considerably less Republican skewing. The current representative in that district will probably run in the 18th.

The current 18th district went for Trump by nearly 20 points, and the Democrats didn't even contest the House seat against former Rep. Tim Murphy (who resigned after a sex scandal). Saccone was a weak candidate, but he isn't a child molester like Roy Moore. Even a last minute appearance by Donald Trump, millions in outside PAC money, constant attempts to bring in Nancy Pelosi, and the supposed "magic bullet" tax cuts that would give every Republican candidate a huge boost, Lamb won.

There are somewhere between 110 and 120 districts (I heard varying numbers last night) currently represented by Republicans that have less of a Republican skew than the 18th. If the Democrats win even one-third of them, they retake the House easily.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:55 am 
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NBC News has called Lamb the probable winner.

There probably aren't enough absentee and provisional votes outstanding at this point for Saccone to make up the difference even if they all went to him. And a recount would be a joke because almost all ballots in this district were cast electronically.

Congratulations, Rep.-elect Lamb! --Bob

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:08 am 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
Pastor Fireball wrote:
Let us also not lose sight of the fact that the 18th District will have new voters in November, as a result of the court's redistricting last month. Even if Lamb is certified the winner of this race, this area will become the new 14th District, which will shed southern Allegheny County and take in the heavily Republican Fayette County.


My understanding is that Lamb will probably run in the neighboring district (the 17th?), which will take in the Allegheny County voters and be considerably less Republican skewing. The current representative in that district will probably run in the 18th.


If Lamb actually lives in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), then he would definitely run in the new 17th District against incumbent Republican Keith Rothfus, who represents most of this area in his old 12th District. Rothfus's district has gone from R+9 to R+3, so it would be a hotly contested race in November regardless.

The old 18th District (new 14th District) has no sitting representative. Saccone actually lives in Allegheny County, so he would certainly not run in either of Pittsburgh's districts. He could move across the county line to run in the new 14th District, if he wanted.

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"... the baseless self-serving persecution foisted upon the Bored by Beast, Estonut, jarnon, Bob#s, and Weasel [in June]. Nonetheless, my life and this game go on as scheduled. Both my life and this game MUST go on, full speed, in direct defiance of the prejudice. Otherwise, the terrorists win."


Last edited by Pastor Fireball on Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:56 am 
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Pastor Fireball wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

Conor Lamb (D) - 105,473
Rick Saccone (R) - 104,678
97% reporting as of 10:20 PM EDT

No way this is not going to a recount.


My understanding is there is no provision for an automatic recount in federal House races in Pennsylvania. A candidate requesting a recount would need to pay for it.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:29 am 
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Pastor Fireball wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
Pastor Fireball wrote:
Let us also not lose sight of the fact that the 18th District will have new voters in November, as a result of the court's redistricting last month. Even if Lamb is certified the winner of this race, this area will become the new 14th District, which will shed southern Allegheny County and take in the heavily Republican Fayette County.


My understanding is that Lamb will probably run in the neighboring district (the 17th?), which will take in the Allegheny County voters and be considerably less Republican skewing. The current representative in that district will probably run in the 18th.


If Lamb actually lives in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), then he would definitely run in the new 17th District against incumbent Republican Keith Rothfus, who represents most of this area in his old 12th District. Rothfus's district has gone from R+9 to R+3, so it would be a hotly contested race in November regardless.

The new 18th District has no sitting representative. Saccone actually lives in Allegheny County, so he would certainly not run in either of Pittsburgh's districts. He could move across the county line to run in the new 14th District, if he wanted.


In PA, my understanding is that there is no requirement you live in the district you represent. I have a feeling both Lamb and Saccone, not to mention their respective parties, will study the election results carefully before deciding whether to run and in what district.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:33 am 
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:54 am 
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mrkelley23 wrote:
Pastor Fireball wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:

My understanding is that Lamb will probably run in the neighboring district (the 17th?), which will take in the Allegheny County voters and be considerably less Republican skewing. The current representative in that district will probably run in the 18th.


If Lamb actually lives in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), then he would definitely run in the new 17th District against incumbent Republican Keith Rothfus, who represents most of this area in his old 12th District. Rothfus's district has gone from R+9 to R+3, so it would be a hotly contested race in November regardless.

The new 18th District has no sitting representative. Saccone actually lives in Allegheny County, so he would certainly not run in either of Pittsburgh's districts. He could move across the county line to run in the new 14th District, if he wanted.


In PA, my understanding is that there is no requirement you live in the district you represent. I have a feeling both Lamb and Saccone, not to mention their respective parties, will study the election results carefully before deciding whether to run and in what district.
You're correct, and that's not limited to Pennsylvania. The Constitution merely says that a candidate must live somewhere in the state he or she represents, and in the term limit cases the Supreme Court has held that states cannot add additional qualifications to those set forth in the Constitution.

You may recall that Republicans made an issue of the fact that at the time of his candidacy, Jon Ossoff lived just outside the District he sought to represent. --Bob

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:58 am 
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mrkelley23 wrote:
In PA, my understanding is that there is no requirement you live in the district you represent. I have a feeling both Lamb and Saccone, not to mention their respective parties, will study the election results carefully before deciding whether to run and in what district.


I doubt you're going to see Saccone running for anything again. He's being made the scapegoat for the poor showing in the district, and I have a feeling he won't get much party support for anything else he runs for.

The spin is that Lamb was going to win big because Saccone was a poor candidate, and Trump came in and almost pulled it out. This would be like Alabama coming from two touchdowns behind late in the game against Tulane only to lose on a missed extra point and then pat themselves on the back and blame the loss on the kicker.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:01 pm 
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Vandal wrote:
Someone get Tony a knife:


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That snowflake deleted his tweet today. He got overconfident in his promise and realized that he now has to fulfill his promise, but he wants to pretend that he never made that promise because cutting off his hand would hurt his fee-fees.

A conservative welches on a promise. In other news, Francisco Franco is dead.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:09 am 
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It has been confirmed that Lamb lives in Mt. Lebanon, which is in the new 17th District. Regardless of the recount results, Lamb has already stated that he is petitioning to run against Rothfus in November.

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"... the baseless self-serving persecution foisted upon the Bored by Beast, Estonut, jarnon, Bob#s, and Weasel [in June]. Nonetheless, my life and this game go on as scheduled. Both my life and this game MUST go on, full speed, in direct defiance of the prejudice. Otherwise, the terrorists win."


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