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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:23 pm 
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Our farmers are going to take a huge hit.

Yellow soybean
Black soybean
Corn
Cornflour
Uncombed cotton
Cotton linters
Sorghum
Brewing or distilling dregs and waste
Other durum wheat
Other wheat and mixed wheat
Whole and half head fresh and cold beef
Fresh and cold beef with bones
Fresh and cold boneless beef
Frozen beef with bones
Frozen boneless beef
Frozen boneless meat
Other frozen beef chops
Dried cranberries
Frozen orange juice
Non-frozen orange juice
Whiskeys
Unstemmed flue-cured tobacco
Other unstemmed tobacco
Flue-cured tobacco partially or totally removed
Partially or totally deterred tobacco stems
Tobacco waste
Tobacco cigars
Tobacco cigarettes
Cigars and cigarettes, tobacco substitutes
Hookah tobacco
Other tobacco for smoking
Reconstituted tobacco
Other tobacco and tobacco substitute products

More: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/04/the-ful ... riffs.html

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:35 pm 
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I wouldn't worry. Everyone knows that trade wars are easy to win. Don't believe me? China's about to demonstrate. --Bob

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:18 pm 
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Bob Juch wrote:
Our farmers are going to take a huge hit.



Define huge. What does that mean. Use real numbers. Let us decided if we think it's huge or even a hit.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:28 pm 
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BackInTex wrote:
Bob Juch wrote:
Our farmers are going to take a huge hit.



Define huge. What does that mean. Use real numbers. Let us decided if we think it's huge or even a hit.
I think it'll be the farmers who decide for themselves how much income they're willing to sacrifice to an unnecessary and counterproductive trade war. --Bob

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:54 pm 
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Bob Juch wrote:
Tobacco waste


Is there really a market for tobacco waste? I didn't know that plants pooped.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:24 pm 
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Who shot the sherrif?

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:40 pm 
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Estonut wrote:
Who shot the sherrif?

But I didn't shoot the deputy.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:10 am 
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I guess China will starve their people if the won't buy our farmers' products.

That's the type of government they are, and the type many want here, apparently.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:17 am 
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BackInTex wrote:
I guess China will starve their people if the won't buy our farmers' products.

That's the type of government they are, and the type many want here, apparently.


Or, more likely they will buy it elsewhere from countries eager to do business with China.

Top 5 tobacco exporting countries: https://top5ofanything.com/list/d1bce05 ... st-Tobacco

Top beef exporting countries: http://beef2live.com/story-world-beef-e ... s-0-106903

Top orange exporting countries: http://www.worldstopexports.com/oranges ... y-country/

I'm sure I could go on. In each case, the US is a leading exporter, but not the leading exporter, so the Chinese still have a lot of countries to choose from.

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Last edited by silverscreenselect on Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:21 am 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
BackInTex wrote:
I guess China will starve their people if the won't buy our farmers' products.

That's the type of government they are, and the type many want here, apparently.


Or, more likely they will buy it elsewhere from countries eager to do business with China.


So the countries currently buying food from the countries that will be selling to China will starve their people. Good, I'd hate for the Chinese to starve.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:23 am 
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BackInTex wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
BackInTex wrote:
I guess China will starve their people if the won't buy our farmers' products.

That's the type of government they are, and the type many want here, apparently.


Or, more likely they will buy it elsewhere from countries eager to do business with China.


So the countries currently buying food from the countries that will be selling to China will starve their people. Good, I'd hate for the Chinese to starve.


I'll save you some typing. If you think there is enough excess agricultural capacity to supply China with its needs, other than in the U.S. you are fooling yourself. The same goes for energy. The U.S. is now an exporter of energy. The worldwide supply outside the U.S. also cannot meet China's needs.

We are hold the most, if not all the cards, in this game.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:26 am 
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BackInTex wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
BackInTex wrote:
I guess China will starve their people if the won't buy our farmers' products.

That's the type of government they are, and the type many want here, apparently.


Or, more likely they will buy it elsewhere from countries eager to do business with China.


So the countries currently buying food from the countries that will be selling to China will starve their people. Good, I'd hate for the Chinese to starve.


No, what's likely to happen is that production will increase to keep up with increasing demand. I'm surprised at you BiT. You're a big fan of free market economics. The only country where demand will go down is the good old USA, thanks to these quotas. I doubt the tobacco companies here will be more successful in encouraging more people in the US to smoke to make up for the loss of the Chinese market.

And if Trump is at all serious about getting some kind of agreement with North Korea, the Chinese will be a very valuable ally in those negotiations.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:29 am 
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BackInTex wrote:
We are hold the most, if not all the cards, in this game.


No, China holds the most cards in the game, and they're playing against someone whose only strategy is to throw down his cards, accuse the other player of cheating and declare that he won.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:07 am 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
BackInTex wrote:
We are hold the most, if not all the cards, in this game.


No, China holds the most cards in the game, and they're playing against someone whose only strategy is to throw down his cards, accuse the other player of cheating and declare that he won.


Its November 2016 all over again. You're wrong.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:26 am 
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BackInTex wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
BackInTex wrote:
We are hold the most, if not all the cards, in this game.


No, China holds the most cards in the game, and they're playing against someone whose only strategy is to throw down his cards, accuse the other player of cheating and declare that he won.


Its November 2016 all over again. You're wrong.


This article is a bit dated, but it does discuss China's economic capacity in regards to a tariff war.

https://www.axios.com/china-usa-engagem ... b5cc2.html

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:40 am 
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Here's how this spat is playing out already in rural America, including Spock's beloved Central Valley of California:

https://apnews.com/ef42ab713c75400183b56406720d963e

Quote:
In California’s central valley, Republican Rep. Jeff Denham has avoided the issue altogether in recent days. His opponent, Democrat and longtime family farmer Michael Eggman, said Trump’s trade policies would shatter his community. The district is home to Blue Diamond Almonds, among smaller nut producers, who send much of their product to China and suddenly face the prospect of 15 percent tariffs.

“We all know how hard it is to make ends meet as a small family farmer, and Trump is not making it easier,” Eggman said. “Jeff Denham, who claims to be a local farmer, hasn’t said one word about it. Where’s the outrage?” Denham, through a spokeswoman, did not address the president’s moves directly but said the congressman supports “free and fair trade” and a plan that’s “carefully thought out.”

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:42 am 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
BackInTex wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:

No, China holds the most cards in the game, and they're playing against someone whose only strategy is to throw down his cards, accuse the other player of cheating and declare that he won.


Its November 2016 all over again. You're wrong.


This article is a bit dated, but it does discuss China's economic capacity in regards to a tariff war.

https://www.axios.com/china-usa-engagem ... b5cc2.html

I know very little about this subject, but I think trump's tariffs are a bad idea. No one gets punished by a tax or a tariff except the end consumer.

That being said, we should all do what hockey puck does. He has presented a link to someone's opinion that supports his own. Let's all just ignore it, not read it and just say it's by a questionable source and should be disregarded.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:14 am 
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I like Powerline's take on this today.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2 ... to-win.php

It might be necessary to wage a trade war with China and Trump might be right to do so-but the American people lack the stomach for a (possibly) necessary trade war. Powerline is NOT a protectionist site.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
"However, China is a special case. As Gordon Chang puts it, what looks like an ordinary trade war “is really a struggle for the control of the technologies that will dominate coming decades.” Chang explains:

Chinese theft of intellectual property is sapping American innovation and therefore America’s economy. The IP Commission, in a 2017 update (PDF) to its landmark 2013 report, estimates the U.S. each year loses somewhere between $225 billion to $600 billion in intellectual property through predatory means. It almost goes without saying that most of that loss is, directly or indirectly, to China.

Under these circumstances, a trade war with China might well be necessary. Trump is right to be willing to wage one. The problem is that America will likely to unwilling to sustain it."
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:36 am 
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Spock wrote:
I like Powerline's take on this today.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2 ... to-win.php

It might be necessary to wage a trade war with China and Trump might be right to do so-but the American people lack the stomach for a (possibly) necessary trade war. Powerline is NOT a protectionist site.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
"However, China is a special case. As Gordon Chang puts it, what looks like an ordinary trade war “is really a struggle for the control of the technologies that will dominate coming decades.” Chang explains:

Chinese theft of intellectual property is sapping American innovation and therefore America’s economy. The IP Commission, in a 2017 update (PDF) to its landmark 2013 report, estimates the U.S. each year loses somewhere between $225 billion to $600 billion in intellectual property through predatory means. It almost goes without saying that most of that loss is, directly or indirectly, to China.

Under these circumstances, a trade war with China might well be necessary. Trump is right to be willing to wage one. The problem is that America will likely to unwilling to sustain it."
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
I agree that Chinese refusal to respect intellectual property rights needs to be dealt with. The problem is that a tariff war will not move us one iota toward that goal. Instead, it makes it harder for us to form the alliances we will need to effectively marshal our allies in support of the necessary tactics. That's a particular concern with Donny, who has singlehandedly turned the United States of America into a country that is now considered by our friends to be an unreliable ally. --Bob

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:59 am 
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Bob78164 wrote:
Spock wrote:
I like Powerline's take on this today.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2 ... to-win.php

It might be necessary to wage a trade war with China and Trump might be right to do so-but the American people lack the stomach for a (possibly) necessary trade war. Powerline is NOT a protectionist site.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
"However, China is a special case. As Gordon Chang puts it, what looks like an ordinary trade war “is really a struggle for the control of the technologies that will dominate coming decades.” Chang explains:

Chinese theft of intellectual property is sapping American innovation and therefore America’s economy. The IP Commission, in a 2017 update (PDF) to its landmark 2013 report, estimates the U.S. each year loses somewhere between $225 billion to $600 billion in intellectual property through predatory means. It almost goes without saying that most of that loss is, directly or indirectly, to China.

Under these circumstances, a trade war with China might well be necessary. Trump is right to be willing to wage one. The problem is that America will likely to unwilling to sustain it."
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
I agree that Chinese refusal to respect intellectual property rights needs to be dealt with. The problem is that a tariff war will not move us one iota toward that goal. Instead, it makes it harder for us to form the alliances we will need to effectively marshal our allies in support of the necessary tactics. That's a particular concern with Donny, who has singlehandedly turned the United States of America into a country that is now considered by our friends to be an unreliable ally. --Bob


I agree with Bob and Spock that Chinese intellectual property theft is a major problem. But anyone who thinks that these tariffs started for the purpose of getting China to address the intellectual property issue probably also believes in the e-mails they get from the Nigerian oil minister. The steel tariff was an unsuccessful effort to hold onto the Pennsylvania House seat. Now, the intellectual property issue is just a legalism under the Trade Act to justify what is another ego-stroking maneuver on his part to "win" an "easy" trade war.

But as these articles make very clear, Trump compartmentalizes all these individual issues and usually thinks of them only in terms of what he stands to gain or lose without considering the big picture. In this case, his first year plus in office (including the steel tariffs), make it less likely we will get the type of international support needed to bring China to the bargaining table, if that's even his actual goal. It also makes it more difficult to get Chinese help in any talks involving North Korea.

The one thing he is doing with the last month or so of outbursts is to destroy much of the momentum the economy had built. The stock market had its first losing quarter in years, we had a bad jobs report, and he's engaging in a hissy fit huff with Amazon that sets a very dangerous precedent. (Can you imagine the outcry among the Hannity crowd if Obama made similar comments about Georgia Pacific and caused their stock to drop 10%?) The question is just what part of his base is he going to alienate next.

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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 10:22 am 
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Archaeologists at the Field Museum translated the inscription on the bottom on an 800-year-old piece of pottery. It says "Made in Jianning Fu, China."

China has been winning trade wars since the days of Marco Polo. The Trump administration is facing a big challenge.


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