AZ-8 special election

[Pastor Fireball]

Occurring right now. This is to fill the vacancy left by Trent Franks, who resigned back in December after showing up on the Harvey List. This district serves the northwestern suburbs of Phoenix and has a Cook PVI of R+13.

The Democratic candidate is Dr. Hiral Tipirneni of the Maricopa Health Foundation. The Republican candidate is Debbie Lesko, a former state senator. No third-party candidates qualified for the ballot, so somebody is guaranteed to break 50% tonight. Polls show Lesko with the advantage, but there are enough undecided voters to make this another close race--as we saw in Pennsylvania last month.

[mrkelley23]

Occurring right now. This is to fill the vacancy left by Trent Franks, who resigned back in December after showing up on the Harvey List. This district serves the northwestern suburbs of Phoenix and has a Cook PVI of R+13.

The Democratic candidate is Dr. Hiral Tipirneni of the Maricopa Health Foundation. The Republican candidate is Debbie Lesko, a former state senator. No third-party candidates qualified for the ballot, so somebody is guaranteed to break 50% tonight. Polls show Lesko with the advantage, but there are enough undecided voters to make this another close race--as we saw in Pennsylvania last month.

I'm not overly familiar with Arizona politics, but based on what I do know, plus the analysis at 538, I'd be very surprised if Dr. Tipirneni comes within five points of winning, let alone winning. The good news is that so many people vote early in that district, we should know the results fairly early tonight.

[silverscreenselect]

This district voted for Trump by 21 points and Mitt Romney by 25 points. The Democrats did not contest this district in 2016; instead, Franks received 70% of the vote against a Green party candidate. According to Fivethirtyeight, this district has a +25 Republican tilt, meaning it is 25% more Republican than the country as a whole. That puts it between Alabama (+29) and the PA Congressional district (+21) from recent special elections. One difference between this and PA is that this is exclusively a suburban district, with many senior citizens, as opposed to the more rural PA district. There, the Republican candidate did significantly better in the outlying counties than in suburban Pittsburgh.

Unlike Pennsylvania, Arizona has early voting and over half the votes in the district have probably already been cast. Based on party registration, those votes through last weekend were 49% registered Republicans, 28% registered Democrats and 60% over 65. Those numbers would make it tough for the Democratic candidate to win if they vote primarily along party lines. Polls close at 9:00 and, since this district is entirely in Maricopa County, there should be a big dump of votes in the first few minutes when the early votes come in.

[jarnon]

The good news is that so many people vote early in that district, we should know the results fairly early tonight.

They vote and then go to Denny's for the senior citizens early bird dinner special.

[Bob Juch]

I have been deluged with fundraising pleas for Dr. Tipirneni. I have saved my money for local races here as well as statewide ones coming up.

[earendel]

I'm not overly familiar with Arizona politics, but based on what I do know, plus the analysis at 538, I'd be very surprised if Dr. Tipirneni comes within five points of winning, let alone winning. The good news is that so many people vote early in that district, we should know the results fairly early tonight.

With 80% of the vote counted, Lesko has been declared the winner, 53% to 47%. Not bad.

[flockofseagulls104]

I'm not overly familiar with Arizona politics, but based on what I do know, plus the analysis at 538, I'd be very surprised if Dr. Tipirneni comes within five points of winning, let alone winning. The good news is that so many people vote early in that district, we should know the results fairly early tonight.

With 80% of the vote counted, Lesko has been declared the winner, 53% to 47%. Not bad.

Dr. Tipirneni gets the Jon Ossoff award for a good second place finish. Money well spent! Congratulations!!!!!

[flockofseagulls104]

Perhaps the democrats should find candidates with better names

Irving Haittrump
Tommy Rumpsux
Irene Peach-Mint

[flockofseagulls104]

Dorothy Plorabbal

[flockofseagulls104]

Kikkim Thahelout

[flockofseagulls104]

Russ E. N. Fluance

[flockofseagulls104]

Stormy Daniels

[mrkelley23]

I'm not overly familiar with Arizona politics, but based on what I do know, plus the analysis at 538, I'd be very surprised if Dr. Tipirneni comes within five points of winning, let alone winning. The good news is that so many people vote early in that district, we should know the results fairly early tonight.

With 80% of the vote counted, Lesko has been declared the winner, 53% to 47%. Not bad.

Dr. Tipirneni gets the Jon Ossoff award for a good second place finish. Money well spent! Congratulations!!!!!

The RNCC spent over $1 million in outside funds on this race. The DNCC spent very little on this race. It can be argued that the DNCC has learned from Ossoff and other races that inserting themselves into local politics is not such a good idea, but still, I think your "money well spent" quote is a little misleading.

What should really scare the Republicans about this particular second place finish is that AZ 8 is heavily suburban, middle-class, and old. If Democrats are gaining (back) suburban voters and older voters, 2018 could be on the order of 1994 and 2010 in terms of Congressional turnover. It's still possible that the wave will be nothing but a ripple, as you and Spock have argued. But with each new special election, that probability goes down.

[silverscreenselect]

Perhaps the democrats should find candidates with better names

Irving Haittrump
Tommy Rumpsux
Irene Peach-Mint

Hiral Tipernini immigrated to the United States from India when she was three years old. I'm guessing that her name is somewhat more common there.

I'm glad you find humor in the names of dark skinned United States citizens who immigrated from other countries as opposed to outstanding American names like Roy Moore.

[flockofseagulls104]

Perhaps the democrats should find candidates with better names

Irving Haittrump
Tommy Rumpsux
Irene Peach-Mint

Hiral Tipernini immigrated to the United States from India when she was three years old. I'm guessing that her name is somewhat more common there.

I'm glad you find humor in the names of dark skinned United States citizens who immigrated from other countries as opposed to outstanding American names like Roy Moore.

You have a dirty mind, hockey puck. Why does race come into play with everything with you? If it werent for people like you, racial animosity would be all but gone in this country. My humor in this was making fun of people who hate trump, and you bring the race card up. Flock you, hockey puck.

[silverscreenselect]

Perhaps the democrats should find candidates with better names

Irving Haittrump
Tommy Rumpsux
Irene Peach-Mint

Hiral Tipernini immigrated to the United States from India when she was three years old. I'm guessing that her name is somewhat more common there.

I'm glad you find humor in the names of dark skinned United States citizens who immigrated from other countries as opposed to outstanding American names like Roy Moore.

You have a dirty mind, hockey puck. Why does race come into play with everything with you? If it werent for people like you, racial animosity would be all but gone in this country. My humor in this was making fun of people who hate trump, and you bring the race card up. Flock you, hockey puck.

No, you just happen to take a Democratic candidate with a somewhat typical Indian name and use it as a jumping off point to create some "funny" names of your own. Would you have done that if her name had been Mary Jones? We both know the answer to that.

Then, when someone calls you out on this bit of racially influenced attempt at humor, you get in your typical huff about how you couldn't possibly be racist because you're not a card-carrying member of the Ku Klux Klan and how dare Democrats bring up race as an issue. As far as "racial animosity being all but gone in this country," events at Starbucks and a New York country club within the last week have demonstrated how far we are from "all but gone."

[flockofseagulls104]

Hiral Tipernini immigrated to the United States from India when she was three years old. I'm guessing that her name is somewhat more common there.

I'm glad you find humor in the names of dark skinned United States citizens who immigrated from other countries as opposed to outstanding American names like Roy Moore.

You have a dirty mind, hockey puck. Why does race come into play with everything with you? If it werent for people like you, racial animosity would be all but gone in this country. My humor in this was making fun of people who hate trump, and you bring the race card up. Flock you, hockey puck.

No, you just happen to take a Democratic candidate with a somewhat typical Indian name and use it as a jumping off point to create some "funny" names of your own. Would you have done that if her name had been Mary Jones? We both know the answer to that.

Then, when someone calls you out on this bit of racially influenced attempt at humor, you get in your typical huff about how you couldn't possibly be racist because you're not a card-carrying member of the Ku Klux Klan and how dare Democrats bring up race as an issue. As far as "racial animosity being all but gone in this country," events at Starbucks and a New York country club within the last week have demonstrated how far we are from "all but gone."

You know NOTHING, hockey puck. I was in a good mood until you decided you needed to spread your hatred around. You are a sick man, SSS. I really mean it.

[jarnon]

No, you just happen to take a Democratic candidate with a somewhat typical Indian name and use it as a jumping off point to create some "funny" names of your own. Would you have done that if her name had been Mary Jones? We both know the answer to that.

As far as I can tell, flock was making ordinary political jokes. Unless it was so subtle that I missed it, he didn't make fun of Tipernini's name, as in this post:

[Bob78164]

As far as "racial animosity being all but gone in this country," events at Starbucks and a New York country club within the last week have demonstrated how far we are from "all but gone."

Let's not forget the neo-Nazi rally in Georgia (which I'm sure was attended by some "very fine people") last week. --Bob

[flockofseagulls104]

Putting houckey puck's hate speech aside for a moment, I think it's funny and pathetic how the lefties on this board are so concerned about every single 'special' election that comes up, and think that any one of them makes any difference at all. They have not learned anything. They regurgitate all these polling statistics, elevate their chosen candidate to godlike status and even when they lose believe that it shows they won.
First of all, these special elections don't mean very much about anything other than that small area of the country and the various qualifications of the specific candidates running.
Second of all, polls are stupid. Pick one and bet on it. There will be another one that claims the exact opposite. If there was one pollster who accurately predicts every race every time, that would be the only one in use. And how accurate were all the polls that guaranteed that hillary would be our president?
Third of all, it's a long time until november. A lot of things will happen.

What will happen will happen. Keep dreaming, lefties. Maybe your gods, like Nancy Pelosi will get a majority again, and they can screw up the country in other ways than the current majority is.

[Bob Juch]

You have a dirty mind, hockey puck. Why does race come into play with everything with you? If it werent for people like you, racial animosity would be all but gone in this country. My humor in this was making fun of people who hate trump, and you bring the race card up. Flock you, hockey puck.

No, you just happen to take a Democratic candidate with a somewhat typical Indian name and use it as a jumping off point to create some "funny" names of your own. Would you have done that if her name had been Mary Jones? We both know the answer to that.

Then, when someone calls you out on this bit of racially influenced attempt at humor, you get in your typical huff about how you couldn't possibly be racist because you're not a card-carrying member of the Ku Klux Klan and how dare Democrats bring up race as an issue. As far as "racial animosity being all but gone in this country," events at Starbucks and a New York country club within the last week have demonstrated how far we are from "all but gone."

You know NOTHING, hockey puck. I was in a good mood until you decided you needed to spread your hatred around. You are a sick man, SSS. I really mean it.

Call him whatever names you want; that's better than calling him a Republican.

[flockofseagulls104]

I am NOT defending myself here. I have nothing to defend myself against except hockey puck's delusions.

I know nothing about this election except what was posted in this thread. I know nothing about the candidates except one was a dem and one was a rep and the lefties were so concerned about which one would win. I even had to go back and check to see which one was the dem and which one was the rep. I knew nothing about the ethnicity of either of the candidates until hockey puck decided to take a joke and insert the ubiquitous race card. The only reason I had an idea that the dem was female was that I believe someone used a feminine pronoun in one of the posts when referring to her. I am not in the habit, or particularly care to, look up the ancestry of anyone unless someone else brings it up. And in politics, it is ALWAYS the leftist that finds that information of any importance.

This racial bullshit has got to stop.

[flockofseagulls104]

No, you just happen to take a Democratic candidate with a somewhat typical Indian name and use it as a jumping off point to create some "funny" names of your own. Would you have done that if her name had been Mary Jones? We both know the answer to that.

Then, when someone calls you out on this bit of racially influenced attempt at humor, you get in your typical huff about how you couldn't possibly be racist because you're not a card-carrying member of the Ku Klux Klan and how dare Democrats bring up race as an issue. As far as "racial animosity being all but gone in this country," events at Starbucks and a New York country club within the last week have demonstrated how far we are from "all but gone."

You know NOTHING, hockey puck. I was in a good mood until you decided you needed to spread your hatred around. You are a sick man, SSS. I really mean it.

Call him whatever names you want; that's better than calling him a Republican.

In that case, you are a Republican, BJ. The worst kind.

[silverscreenselect]

I know nothing about the candidates except one was a dem and one was a rep and the lefties were so concerned about which one would win.

I guess you could count the Republican National Committee, the National Congressional Republican Committee, the Congressional Leadership Fund, Paul Ryan, and Kevin McCarthy among those lefties who were so concerned about who would win this election.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/ ... ion-498547

[flockofseagulls104]

I know nothing about the candidates except one was a dem and one was a rep and the lefties were so concerned about which one would win.

I guess you could count the Republican National Committee, the National Congressional Republican Committee, the Congressional Leadership Fund, Paul Ryan, and Kevin McCarthy among those lefties who were so concerned about who would win this election.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/ ... ion-498547

lefties on the bored, hockey puck. Keep avoiding the main point. Your bigotry.