Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#51 Post by Bob78164 » Thu May 10, 2018 12:18 am

flockofseagulls104 wrote:Trump has been saying from day one of his campaign that he would do this, and that the deal was the worst he'd ever seen. This is no surprise. There are so many things reported about this deal that it is hard to know what is true and what is not about it. (Unless you're bob-tel or AH, in which case you cherry pick the news you like and have it support your pre-decided opinion.) But the fact is that Iran is still sponsoring terrorism, still threatens Israel, the US, and its immediate neighbors. From what I understand from most news sources, this agreement has an expiration date, at which time Iran can go ahead and do what it wants. For those reasons alone, it might make sense to reimpose heavy sanctions on them. As far as I can tell, we (the US) got the shaft in this deal. What? Iran will hate us for reneging on the deal? I think they (at least the government) already does. Not much to worry about there.

Another reason is that it will send a message to Kim Jung Un that he better not be counting on hoodwinking us, like NK did to other previous administrations. I think it shows we won't be fooled again.
Imposing heavy sanctions will be utterly ineffective unless they're international. These won't be. Our European allies have made it perfectly clear they have no intention of abandoning the deal. I'm not worried about Iran hating us for reneging on the deal. I'm worried about all of the other deals we'll want to make in the future, not just during Donny's Administration (no one in his right mind will deal with Donny -- he's already proven he can't be trusted), but in future Administrations. The world now knows that the United States government will not abide by its word.

And I haven't seen any evidence that we were fooled. Do you think that if we hadn't entered the deal, Iran would have stopped acting as a state sponsor of terrorism? Of course not. The difference is that with the deal, at least they can't arm terrorists with nukes. That seems like a pretty good benefit. --Bob
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#52 Post by flockofseagulls104 » Thu May 10, 2018 12:37 am

Bob78164 wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:Trump has been saying from day one of his campaign that he would do this, and that the deal was the worst he'd ever seen. This is no surprise. There are so many things reported about this deal that it is hard to know what is true and what is not about it. (Unless you're bob-tel or AH, in which case you cherry pick the news you like and have it support your pre-decided opinion.) But the fact is that Iran is still sponsoring terrorism, still threatens Israel, the US, and its immediate neighbors. From what I understand from most news sources, this agreement has an expiration date, at which time Iran can go ahead and do what it wants. For those reasons alone, it might make sense to reimpose heavy sanctions on them. As far as I can tell, we (the US) got the shaft in this deal. What? Iran will hate us for reneging on the deal? I think they (at least the government) already does. Not much to worry about there.

Another reason is that it will send a message to Kim Jung Un that he better not be counting on hoodwinking us, like NK did to other previous administrations. I think it shows we won't be fooled again.
Imposing heavy sanctions will be utterly ineffective unless they're international. These won't be. Our European allies have made it perfectly clear they have no intention of abandoning the deal. I'm not worried about Iran hating us for reneging on the deal. I'm worried about all of the other deals we'll want to make in the future, not just during Donny's Administration (no one in his right mind will deal with Donny -- he's already proven he can't be trusted), but in future Administrations. The world now knows that the United States government will not abide by its word.

And I haven't seen any evidence that we were fooled. Do you think that if we hadn't entered the deal, Iran would have stopped acting as a state sponsor of terrorism? Of course not. The difference is that with the deal, at least they can't arm terrorists with nukes. That seems like a pretty good benefit. --Bob
bob-tel, I have already explained to you that this deal was not ratified by the US. It was an agreement with Obama. And because of the way he did it, trump has every right to annul it. Read up on it with an open mind, if you can. And it's been reported that none of the actual leaders of Iran signed it. Not sure about that. just repeating what I heard.
Do you think that if we hadn't entered the deal, Iran would have stopped acting as a state sponsor of terrorism?
What the heck does that mean?
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#53 Post by silverscreenselect » Thu May 10, 2018 4:02 am

flockofseagulls104 wrote:
bob-tel, I have already explained to you that this deal was not ratified by the US. It was an agreement with Obama. And because of the way he did it, trump has every right to annul it. Read up on it with an open mind, if you can. And it's been reported that none of the actual leaders of Iran signed it. Not sure about that. just repeating what I heard.
Neither the Iranians nor anyone else we deal with internationally care about the fine points of U.S. constitutional law and what presidents are and are not "allowed" to do. All they know is that the U.S.'s word cannot be trusted. Exactly what sort of posture does that put the U.S. in with the upcoming talks with North Korea?

Again, to be fair, I have never thought North Korea intends to do anything other than put on a show about being responsible and reasonable, get some concessions from us or, more likely, the South Koreans, and then not change a single subanstive thing. So, Trump's gesture isn't really going to hurt these negotiations, but it will give the Koreans a more convenient excuse for backing out or violating them.
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#54 Post by earendel » Thu May 10, 2018 5:50 am

flockofseagulls104 wrote:Trump has been saying from day one of his campaign that he would do this, and that the deal was the worst he'd ever seen. This is no surprise. There are so many things reported about this deal that it is hard to know what is true and what is not about it. (Unless you're bob-tel or AH, in which case you cherry pick the news you like and have it support your pre-decided opinion.) But the fact is that Iran is still sponsoring terrorism, still threatens Israel, the US, and its immediate neighbors. From what I understand from most news sources, this agreement has an expiration date, at which time Iran can go ahead and do what it wants. For those reasons alone, it might make sense to reimpose heavy sanctions on them. As far as I can tell, we (the US) got the shaft in this deal. What? Iran will hate us for reneging on the deal? I think they (at least the government) already does. Not much to worry about there.

Another reason is that it will send a message to Kim Jung Un that he better not be counting on hoodwinking us, like NK did to other previous administrations. I think it shows we won't be fooled again.
OK, so the president stated he was going to do this, and he did. No one disputes whether he had the authority to do so. But, to paraphrase Ian Malcolm, he was "so preoccupied with whether he could, he didn't stop to think if he should". The president claimed that Iran was cheating on the deal, despite evidence to the contrary (including testimony from James Mattis regarding the "robust"ness of the deal's verification procedures.

With respect to the expiration dates, some of the provisions do expire in 2025 (the ban on producing advanced centrifuges, the monitoring of Iran's civil nuclear procurement and the requirement for UN member nations to impose sanctions if Iran violates the terms of the agreement). But other restrictions, such as the cap on enriched uranium and the ban on heavy-water reactors last until 2030; inspectors are allowed to monitor centrifuge production until 2040, and the requirement to abide by the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and the ban on reprocessing spent fuel have no expiration date. As for those that do expire, is there any reason to believe that those wouldn't be renegotiated?

It should also be noted that some existing sanctions relating to Iran's missile program and support for terrorist organizations, were not lifted by the agreement. Further, it's my understanding that our allies, specifically France and Germany, asked the president not to withdraw from the agreement and said they would support efforts to enlarge the agreement to deal with those two issues.

The president likes to talk about "the art of the deal". Does he really think that Iran is going to be interested in any kind of new agreement? From what he said in his statement I think he's hoping that the reimposition of sanctions and adding more on top of them will foment a "people's rebellion" against the leadership of Iran. My guess is that all he's done is strengthen the hand of the hard-liners in Tehran and cut the legs out from under the (relatively) moderate president of Iran, HHassan Rouhani.
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#55 Post by BackInTex » Thu May 10, 2018 7:19 am

flockofseagulls104 wrote:
Do you think that if we hadn't entered the deal, Iran would have stopped acting as a state sponsor of terrorism?
What the heck does that mean?
It means Bob's way of negotiating is "..you can be mean, but not really really mean? O.K."
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#56 Post by silverscreenselect » Thu May 10, 2018 7:46 am

BackInTex wrote:
Bob Juch wrote:
BackInTex wrote: USD up over the EUR
Nasdaq up
S&P up
Dow up
Price of oil up.
Piling on is not going to help Bob get through this.
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#57 Post by jarnon » Thu May 10, 2018 9:30 am

IMHO Trump's move will have just a limited effect on the Iran deal. The U.S. has already fulfilled its biggest obligations, by voting to lift UN sanctions and unfreezing Iran's assets, and Trump can't undo those actions. Iran can abide by the deal and keep doing business with some foreign companies. Or they can renege, and crippling UN sanctions go back into effect. Or they can cheat and hope they're not caught (and I'm sure U.S. and other intelligence agencies are watching them closely).

I don't know what the effect will be on future negotiations, such as with North Korea or on a follow-up deal with Iran. The administration's message is "Don't mess with the U.S." But European leaders fear our adversaries won't believe we're trustworthy.
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#58 Post by flockofseagulls104 » Thu May 10, 2018 10:06 am

jarnon wrote:IMHO Trump's move will have just a limited effect on the Iran deal. The U.S. has already fulfilled its biggest obligations, by voting to lift UN sanctions and unfreezing Iran's assets, and Trump can't undo those actions. Iran can abide by the deal and keep doing business with some foreign companies. Or they can renege, and crippling UN sanctions go back into effect. Or they can cheat and hope they're not caught (and I'm sure U.S. and other intelligence agencies are watching them closely).

I don't know what the effect will be on future negotiations, such as with North Korea or on a follow-up deal with Iran. The administration's message is "Don't mess with the U.S." But European leaders fear our adversaries won't believe we're trustworthy.
Like Iran, who are sponsoring terror across the world? Like Russia and China, who hack us daily and steal our technology? They won't believe we are trustworthy?

Like Reagan did, trump is not going by the go along-get along model of diplomacy. Most of the usual suspects are throwing the same memes out that they did at Reagan. He's going to get us into WWIII. There is that possibility, and I hope to God it doesn't happen. But Reagan did it and it achieved positive results, and so far, trump is getting positive results.

As long as trump is President, we are going to have to bite our nails and trust that he knows what he is doing. I know the haters out there will never do that, but unless they are successful in getting him out, they are also going to have to trust him, because it ain't gonna change. So I would advise them, for what it's worth, not to do what Kerry's doing and try and undermine him.
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#59 Post by silverscreenselect » Thu May 10, 2018 12:01 pm

flockofseagulls104 wrote: Like Reagan did, trump is not going by the go along-get along model of diplomacy.
So, the lesson to be learned from this is, that if you want to get on Trump's good side, all you have to do is claim you want to make peace, say a couple of nice things about him, and agree to meet with him face to face. Oh, and if you scoop up a couple of U.S. citizens on bogus charges, hold and abuse them for several months, and then make a big show of releasing them as a sign of good faith, that will help immensely as well. But if you really want to clinch the deal, just whisper the words "Nobel Peace Prize" in his ear.

And do we really want to deal with Iran the same way Reagan did, namely, by secretly and illegally selling them weapons in the face of an arms embargo and then using the money to fund the overthrow of a popularly elected (albeit anti-U.S.) government?
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#60 Post by silverscreenselect » Thu May 10, 2018 2:06 pm

flockofseagulls104 wrote: Like Reagan did, trump is not going by the go along-get along model of diplomacy.
Interesting article about how Reagan prepared for his big summit meeting on denuclearization with Gorbachev. Does anyone think Trump is going to do 1% of this amount of preparation for his meeting with Kim next month?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/ ... 598012002/
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#61 Post by jarnon » Thu May 10, 2018 2:13 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:And do we really want to deal with Iran the same way Reagan did, namely, by secretly and illegally selling them weapons in the face of an arms embargo and then using the money to fund the overthrow of a popularly elected (albeit anti-U.S.) government?
Some right-wingers are OK with it. Ollie North just became president of the NRA.
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#62 Post by Bob78164 » Thu May 10, 2018 3:03 pm

flockofseagulls104 wrote:As long as trump is President, we are going to have to bite our nails and trust that he knows what he is doing. I know the haters out there will never do that, but unless they are successful in getting him out, they are also going to have to trust him, because it ain't gonna change. So I would advise them, for what it's worth, not to do what Kerry's doing and try and undermine him.
That's not how our democracy works, not is it supposed to work that way. If our parents had followed that advice in the '60s, the Vietnam War might have gone even longer. I will continue to speak out, and to urge my Congressional representatives to use their authority, to oppose Donny when I think he's wrong, which is damn near always. And so far I haven't seen any arguments that come close to overcoming my entirely justified skepticism of Donny's acumen in this area. --Bob
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#63 Post by flockofseagulls104 » Thu May 10, 2018 4:31 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:As long as trump is President, we are going to have to bite our nails and trust that he knows what he is doing. I know the haters out there will never do that, but unless they are successful in getting him out, they are also going to have to trust him, because it ain't gonna change. So I would advise them, for what it's worth, not to do what Kerry's doing and try and undermine him.
That's not how our democracy works, not is it supposed to work that way. If our parents had followed that advice in the '60s, the Vietnam War might have gone even longer. I will continue to speak out, and to urge my Congressional representatives to use their authority, to oppose Donny when I think he's wrong, which is damn near always. And so far I haven't seen any arguments that come close to overcoming my entirely justified skepticism of Donny's acumen in this area. --Bob
If you did, you wouldn't acknowledge it. 3 North Korean prisoners returned home might be a good reason to examine the possible effectiveness of a strong foreign policy stance, instead of 'leading from behind'.
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#64 Post by Bob78164 » Thu May 10, 2018 5:29 pm

flockofseagulls104 wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:As long as trump is President, we are going to have to bite our nails and trust that he knows what he is doing. I know the haters out there will never do that, but unless they are successful in getting him out, they are also going to have to trust him, because it ain't gonna change. So I would advise them, for what it's worth, not to do what Kerry's doing and try and undermine him.
That's not how our democracy works, not is it supposed to work that way. If our parents had followed that advice in the '60s, the Vietnam War might have gone even longer. I will continue to speak out, and to urge my Congressional representatives to use their authority, to oppose Donny when I think he's wrong, which is damn near always. And so far I haven't seen any arguments that come close to overcoming my entirely justified skepticism of Donny's acumen in this area. --Bob
If you did, you wouldn't acknowledge it. 3 North Korean prisoners returned home might be a good reason to examine the possible effectiveness of a strong foreign policy stance, instead of 'leading from behind'.
If I weren't familiar with the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, I might even agree.

I think it's more likely that the 3 Americans were taken in the first place in order to enable North Korea to play to Donny's ego by releasing them at a time and place of its choosing. I don't know whether North Korea is paying attention to Iran. But I'm pretty sure it pays attention to Donny's preening over the release of the three Bruin basketball players by China. --Bob
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#65 Post by Beebs52 » Thu May 10, 2018 6:02 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:That's not how our democracy works, not is it supposed to work that way. If our parents had followed that advice in the '60s, the Vietnam War might have gone even longer. I will continue to speak out, and to urge my Congressional representatives to use their authority, to oppose Donny when I think he's wrong, which is damn near always. And so far I haven't seen any arguments that come close to overcoming my entirely justified skepticism of Donny's acumen in this area. --Bob
If you did, you wouldn't acknowledge it. 3 North Korean prisoners returned home might be a good reason to examine the possible effectiveness of a strong foreign policy stance, instead of 'leading from behind'.
If I weren't familiar with the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, I might even agree.

I think it's more likely that the 3 Americans were taken in the first place in order to enable North Korea to play to Donny's ego by releasing them at a time and place of its choosing. I don't know whether North Korea is paying attention to Iran. But I'm pretty sure it pays attention to Donny's preening over the release of the three Bruin basketball players by China. --Bob
So, my break was short. One of the guys was arrested in 2015...
Well, then

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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#66 Post by Bob78164 » Thu May 10, 2018 6:22 pm

Beebs52 wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:
If you did, you wouldn't acknowledge it. 3 North Korean prisoners returned home might be a good reason to examine the possible effectiveness of a strong foreign policy stance, instead of 'leading from behind'.
If I weren't familiar with the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, I might even agree.

I think it's more likely that the 3 Americans were taken in the first place in order to enable North Korea to play to Donny's ego by releasing them at a time and place of its choosing. I don't know whether North Korea is paying attention to Iran. But I'm pretty sure it pays attention to Donny's preening over the release of the three Bruin basketball players by China. --Bob
So, my break was short. One of the guys was arrested in 2015...
Thanks. I was not aware of that. --Bob
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#67 Post by BackInTex » Thu May 10, 2018 6:25 pm

Bob78164 wrote:If I weren't familiar with the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, I might even agree.
But apparently you believe in pre hoc ergo propter hoc.
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#68 Post by Beebs52 » Thu May 10, 2018 6:39 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Beebs52 wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:If I weren't familiar with the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, I might even agree.

I think it's more likely that the 3 Americans were taken in the first place in order to enable North Korea to play to Donny's ego by releasing them at a time and place of its choosing. I don't know whether North Korea is paying attention to Iran. But I'm pretty sure it pays attention to Donny's preening over the release of the three Bruin basketball players by China. --Bob
So, my break was short. One of the guys was arrested in 2015...
Thanks. I was not aware of that. --Bob
My pleasure.
Well, then

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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#69 Post by flockofseagulls104 » Thu May 10, 2018 7:02 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:That's not how our democracy works, not is it supposed to work that way. If our parents had followed that advice in the '60s, the Vietnam War might have gone even longer. I will continue to speak out, and to urge my Congressional representatives to use their authority, to oppose Donny when I think he's wrong, which is damn near always. And so far I haven't seen any arguments that come close to overcoming my entirely justified skepticism of Donny's acumen in this area. --Bob
If you did, you wouldn't acknowledge it. 3 North Korean prisoners returned home might be a good reason to examine the possible effectiveness of a strong foreign policy stance, instead of 'leading from behind'.
If I weren't familiar with the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, I might even agree.

I think it's more likely that the 3 Americans were taken in the first place in order to enable North Korea to play to Donny's ego by releasing them at a time and place of its choosing. I don't know whether North Korea is paying attention to Iran. But I'm pretty sure it pays attention to Donny's preening over the release of the three Bruin basketball players by China. --Bob
Can't you get over your hatred of trump to at least acknowledge and celebrate the release of these men? Even if they are playing to his ego, did they make any demands for their release? Not that I know of. And the 2 leaders will talk. Did you see that coming last year when you thought trump was going to nuke NK? We'll see what happens.
And, again, don't complain of name calling (your and AH's new mantra) when you constantly amuse yourself by referring to the President in a disrespectful and childish manner.
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#70 Post by Bob78164 » Thu May 10, 2018 7:04 pm

flockofseagulls104 wrote:And, again, don't complain of name calling (your and AH's new mantra) when you constantly amuse yourself by referring to the President in a disrespectful and childish manner.
I show Donny disrespect because his conduct has earned contempt. He doesn't get a pass on that conduct because he works in the Oval Office. At least, not from me. --Bob
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#71 Post by silverscreenselect » Thu May 10, 2018 9:50 pm

Beebs52 wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
I think it's more likely that the 3 Americans were taken in the first place in order to enable North Korea to play to Donny's ego by releasing them at a time and place of its choosing. I don't know whether North Korea is paying attention to Iran. But I'm pretty sure it pays attention to Donny's preening over the release of the three Bruin basketball players by China. --Bob
So, my break was short. One of the guys was arrested in 2015...
Bob's got the right idea even if the details are a bit off. The North Koreans quite possibly took these people in the first place just to have a bargaining chip available at the right time. Now, Kim scores some more brownie points at no cost to himself ahead of the meeting with Trump.

As to Flock's assertion, yes, it's a good thing these men are back, regardless of who the president is or what the North Korean motivation was.
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jarnon
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Re: Trump pulls US out of the Iran nuclear deal

#72 Post by jarnon » Thu May 10, 2018 10:29 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:3 North Korean prisoners returned home might be a good reason to examine the possible effectiveness of a strong foreign policy stance, instead of 'leading from behind'.
If I weren't familiar with the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, I might even agree.

I think it's more likely that the 3 Americans were taken in the first place in order to enable North Korea to play to Donny's ego by releasing them at a time and place of its choosing. I don't know whether North Korea is paying attention to Iran. But I'm pretty sure it pays attention to Donny's preening over the release of the three Bruin basketball players by China. --Bob
Or the American released by Cuba when we re-established diplomatic relations, or the prisoners released by Iran at the time of the nuclear deal. Dictators like to free hostages as a goodwill gesture — but never a quid pro quo (see I know Latin too).
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