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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:34 pm 
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Nate's Senate projection is out. He has Democrats as a little better than 1 in 3 to take the Senate. --Bob

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:22 pm 
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:49 pm 
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flockofseagulls104 wrote:



Never gets old.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:27 pm 
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flockofseagulls104 wrote:
News flash: 25% underdogs have been found to win 1 time in 4. Nate picked up that Donny had a realistic chance to win. Most mainstream media outlets did not.

Ignore Nate's analysis at your peril. --Bob

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:32 pm 
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Bob78164 wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:
News flash: 25% underdogs have been found to win 1 time in 4. Nate picked up that Donny had a realistic chance to win. Most mainstream media outlets did not.

Ignore Nate's analysis at your peril. --Bob


I am tremblin in mah boots.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:47 pm 
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Nate claims that "There’s a greater than 50 percent chance that either Republicans win the House or Democrats win the Senate by the time we get to Election Day".


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:56 pm 
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Bob78164 wrote:
Nate's Senate projection is out. He has Democrats as a little better than 1 in 3 to take the Senate. --Bob


Nate currently has the Democrats at over 50% in all the tossup states with Democratic senators currently as well as Nevada and Arizona. He also gives them a decent chance in Tennessee and Texas. The problem is that, although they are favorites in all those states, they pretty much have to run the table (or pick up TN, TX, or, less likely, MS) to take the Senate.

If anything this year, the polls have underestimated the results for Democrats in special elections in contested districts.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:00 pm 
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flockofseagulls104 wrote:


Flock, you realize that for your post to make sense, which, admittedly, very few of your posts do, it means that you think the Democrats have a much greater chance of capturing the Senate than what Nate projects.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:16 pm 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:


Flock, you realize that for your post to make sense, which, admittedly, very few of your posts do, it means that you think the Democrats have a much greater chance of capturing the Senate than what Nate projects.


I don't think we should even bother with electing people. Let's just govern by polls! Most politicians do that anyway. Let's cut out the middleman and save tons of money!

The reason my posts don't make sense to you is you don't bother to read them.

I got you, babe...


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:20 pm 
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flockofseagulls104 wrote:
The reason my posts don't make sense to you is you don't bother to read them.


The reason they don't make sense to me is that I know how to think without referring to Tucker Carlson or Donald Trump to make the decisions for me.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:13 pm 
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flockofseagulls104 wrote:
I don't think we should even bother with electing people. Let's just govern by polls! Most politicians do that anyway. Let's cut out the middleman and save tons of money!
Remembering Isaac Asimov’s Election Day


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:26 pm 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
flockofseagulls104 wrote:
The reason my posts don't make sense to you is you don't bother to read them.


The reason they don't make sense to me is that I know how to think without referring to Tucker Carlson or Donald Trump to make the decisions for me.

They say we're young and we don't know
We won't find out until we grow
Well I don't know if all that's true
'Cause you got me, and baby I got you
Babe
I got you babe
You still got no clue babe
They say our love won't pay the rent
Before it's earned, our money's all been spent
I guess that's so, we don't have a plot
But at least I'm sure of all the things we got
Babe
I got you babe
You still got no clue babe
I got flowers in the spring
I got you to wear my ring
And when I'm sad, you're a clown
And if I get scared, you're always around
Don't let them say your hair's too long
'Cause I don't care, with you I can't go wrong
Then put your little hand in mine
There ain't no hill or mountain we can't climb
Babe
I got you babe
You still got no clue babe



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:21 am 
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Bob78164 wrote:
Nate's Senate projection is out. He has Democrats as a little better than 1 in 3 to take the Senate. --Bob


That's only provided that Heidi Heitkamp holds her seat in North Dakota. Polls currently have her running slightly behind Republican congressman Kevin Cramer. If she loses, the Democratic Party would need a third pickup (aside from the obvious targets of Arizona and Nevada) in order to cancel out her loss.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:31 am 
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Bob78164 wrote:
Ignore Nate's analysis at your peril. --Bob


Since I don't wager money on elections there is no peril in me ignoring Nate.

If he's right, the nation loses, if he's wrong, we win. Me paying attention and continuously trying to understand his numbers and his opinion of those numbers is a waste of my time.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:09 am 
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Pastor Fireball wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
Nate's Senate projection is out. He has Democrats as a little better than 1 in 3 to take the Senate. --Bob


That's only provided that Heidi Heitkamp holds her seat in North Dakota. Polls currently have her running slightly behind Republican congressman Kevin Cramer. If she loses, the Democratic Party would need a third pickup (aside from the obvious targets of Arizona and Nevada) in order to cancel out her loss.


Silver lists Heitkamp as a favorite based on intangibles (fund-raising, historical trends, incumbency, etc.) but gives her chances as 60%. Bill Nelson's chances ate lower, at 55%, while Claire McCaskill is at 72%.

While some people choose to ignore the polls, national committees do not. They have to decide where to allocate their limited resources, and if polling indicates that a particular election is a lost cause, they may pull the plug. Ironically, the Republican Committee is now shifting funds towards Ted Cruz in Texas, an election they originally thought was safe. That's not good news for Republican candidates in other states (Texas is a much bigger media market than North Dakota). They have already pulled the plug on several incumbent Representatives, including Barbara Comstock in Virginia.

And a lot of the forecast depends on the popularity of Donald Trump, which took a dive in the last month, thanks to the convictions of Cohen and Manafort, the death of John McCain, and the Woodward book and NYT op-ed. That could also change between now and the election, either because of major developments in the Mueller investigation (major figure indictments), an international crisis and how Trump handles it, and even possibly, the response to hurricane damage.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:50 am 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
And a lot of the forecast depends on the popularity of Donald Trump, which took a dive in the last month, thanks to the convictions of Cohen and Manafort, the death of John McCain, and the Woodward book and NYT op-ed. That could also change between now and the election, either because of major developments in the Mueller investigation (major figure indictments), an international crisis and how Trump handles it, and even possibly, the response to hurricane damage.


There's also plenty of time for a couple of Republicans to dig themselves into a metaphorical grave of macaca proportions. It's only September.

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