Latest 538 forecast for the House
- Bob Juch
- Posts: 26470
- Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:58 am
- Location: Oro Valley, Arizona
- Contact:
Latest 538 forecast for the House
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)
Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.
Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)
Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.
Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.
- Ritterskoop
- Posts: 5728
- Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2007 10:16 pm
- Location: Charlotte, NC
Re: Latest 538 forecast for the House
I am seeing ads that say "A vote for Dan McCready is a vote for Nancy Pelosi".
McCready is a Democrat running in NC's District 9 against Mark Harris, the minister of Charlotte's First Baptist Church. McCready is a former Marine whose slogan has been Party Over Country, in that he doesn't want you to vote for him because of the D but because he intends to do what's best for everyone, regardless of party.
I just think if you want to get people not to vote for him, say something about him, not about a California politician we didn't vote for. It makes me think they don't have much strong to say about him. Neither he nor Harris has been willing to take much of a position on anything, though.
PS - I am in a different district from NC 9, but they are so gerrymandered around here, we will be hearing about this race for three more weeks.
McCready is a Democrat running in NC's District 9 against Mark Harris, the minister of Charlotte's First Baptist Church. McCready is a former Marine whose slogan has been Party Over Country, in that he doesn't want you to vote for him because of the D but because he intends to do what's best for everyone, regardless of party.
I just think if you want to get people not to vote for him, say something about him, not about a California politician we didn't vote for. It makes me think they don't have much strong to say about him. Neither he nor Harris has been willing to take much of a position on anything, though.
PS - I am in a different district from NC 9, but they are so gerrymandered around here, we will be hearing about this race for three more weeks.
If you fail to pilot your own ship, don't be surprised at what inappropriate port you find yourself docked. - Tom Robbins
--------
At the moment of commitment, the universe conspires to assist you. - attributed to Johann Wolfgang von Goethe.
--------
At the moment of commitment, the universe conspires to assist you. - attributed to Johann Wolfgang von Goethe.
- SpacemanSpiff
- Posts: 2487
- Joined: Wed Jul 08, 2009 1:33 pm
- Location: Richmond VA
- Contact:
Re: Latest 538 forecast for the House
They've trotted out the Pelosi Boogeywoman ad campaigns here in the Virginia Seventh District in the last week. During the likely only debate between the candidates last night, Dave Brat invoked Pelosi repeatedly, as if she were the opposition candidate instead of Abigail Spanberger.Ritterskoop wrote:I am seeing ads that say "A vote for Dan McCready is a vote for Nancy Pelosi".
https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/ ... 8d959.html
"If you're dead, you don't have any freedoms at all." - Jason Isbell
- jarnon
- Posts: 6292
- Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 9:52 pm
- Location: Merion, Pa.
Re: Latest 538 forecast for the House
Pelosi was the featured speaker at a Delaware County Democrats fundraiser last week. All the candidates were fine with being seen with her.
Слава Україні!
עם ישראל חי
עם ישראל חי
- silverscreenselect
- Posts: 23268
- Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:21 pm
- Contact:
Re: Latest 538 forecast for the House
They haven't forgotten about Hillary either. They keep mentioning that Democratic candidates are "cronies of Clinton."
The 538 forecasts for House and Senate change several times a day as they update information. Currently, they show Democrats with nearly an 85% chance to retake the House with an expected gain of 40 seats (they need 23 for a majority). The vote differential is currently 8.9% in favor of Democrats, the highest it's been in months.
Of course, the playing field is different in the Senate for various reasons. and the Democrats currently only have about a 20% chance there of regaining control as recent polling in ND, TN, and other places hasn't been that good lately.
The 538 forecasts for House and Senate change several times a day as they update information. Currently, they show Democrats with nearly an 85% chance to retake the House with an expected gain of 40 seats (they need 23 for a majority). The vote differential is currently 8.9% in favor of Democrats, the highest it's been in months.
Of course, the playing field is different in the Senate for various reasons. and the Democrats currently only have about a 20% chance there of regaining control as recent polling in ND, TN, and other places hasn't been that good lately.
Check out our website: http://www.silverscreenvideos.com
- jarnon
- Posts: 6292
- Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 9:52 pm
- Location: Merion, Pa.
Re: Latest 538 forecast for the House
The polls predict the House will turn Democratic while the GOP elects more Senators. That’s never happened before. Nate Silver posted a sophisticated analysis to explain it. Here’s a simpler explanation that I can understand: Republicans won in competitive House districts in 2016 along with Trump, while Democratic Senators running for re-election were elected in 2012 with Obama.
Слава Україні!
עם ישראל חי
עם ישראל חי