One of These Polls Has to Be Wrong

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silverscreenselect
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One of These Polls Has to Be Wrong

#1 Post by silverscreenselect » Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:21 am

Final pre-election generic preference Congressional poll.

CNN D+13
Rasmussen R+1

FWIW, Rasmussen consistently shows among the highest Republican poll results. Most of the other polls seem to show a D +7 or +8 advantage.
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Pastor Fireball
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Re: One of These Polls Has to Be Wrong

#2 Post by Pastor Fireball » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:22 am

I never look at the generic party preference polls. I look only at the polls of individual U.S. House races. Not counting the pure tossup races:

Cook shows a minimum net gain of 17 Democratic seats. (Low prediction.)
Politico shows a minimum net gain of 24 Democratic seats. (Average prediction.)
Sabato shows a minimum net gain of 35 Democratic seats. (High prediction.)

The Democratic Party needs a net gain of only 23 seats to reclaim the House. I say "net gain" because it's almost guaranteed that MN-8 will flip to Republican, as longtime DFL representative Rick Nolan called it quits earlier this year in his failed attempt to seek the DFL nomination for Lieutenant Governor.
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