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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:16 pm 
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AP has called the 45th Congressional District for Katie Porter over Rep. Mimi Walters, and even without tomorrow's update from Los Angeles County, Gil Cisneros has taken the lead over Young Kim in the 39th Congressional District (now represented by Rep. Ed Royce). Assuming those results hold, I believe that every Congressional seat that includes any of Orange County will be represented by a Democrat. I remember how shocked I was when Loretta Sanchez beat B-1 Bob Dornan in the heart of Orange County. The transformation is now complete.

If Ronald Reagan could see what's happened to the Republican Party, I'm guessing he'd have approved of this development. --Bob

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:22 pm 
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Shastina Sandman, my twitter follower who ran against Dana Rohrbacher for Congress, was bombarding me with right wing political tweets for weeks leading up to the election. Since election day, she's posted one tweet, a gag video.

I'm guessing there's a lot of Republicans in shock who really didn't see this happening.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:31 pm 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
Shastina Sandman, my twitter follower who ran against Dana Rohrbacher for Congress, was bombarding me with right wing political tweets for weeks leading up to the election. Since election day, she's posted one tweet, a gag video.

I'm guessing there's a lot of Republicans in shock who really didn't see this happening.
Some on this very Bored. --Bob

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:59 am 
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Bob78164 wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
Shastina Sandman, my twitter follower who ran against Dana Rohrbacher for Congress, was bombarding me with right wing political tweets for weeks leading up to the election. Since election day, she's posted one tweet, a gag video.

I'm guessing there's a lot of Republicans in shock who really didn't see this happening.
Some on this very Bored. --Bob



LOL - that's adorable. I haven't been shocked since November, 2016.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:49 am 
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AP has called the 39th district for Cisneros over Kim. This is PSM's district, and I know she must be delighted. --Bob

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:27 pm 
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Bob78164 wrote:
AP has called the 39th district for Cisneros over Kim. This is PSM's district, and I know she must be delighted. --Bob


The Democrats have also picked up a seat in Utah, so that makes a net gain of 39 seats so far. Democrats aslo lost two seats in Minnesota of all places, so they actually flipped 41 seats this election.

In the Georgia 7th District, which is also in the Atlanta suburbs, Congressman Rob Woodall finished about 400 votes ahead of his Democratic challenger Carolyn Bourdeaux. There will be a recount, but I'm not sure how she makes up 400 votes.

Barring a very odd result in the recount, the only remaining district that's up for grabs in the California 21st, which will probably be a very close final result. A win there would mean a 40 seat gain for the Democrats. BTW, either 39 or 40 were outside most of the experts' predictions, except for 538, whose final call was a 39 seat gain.

In another amusing California note, the day after the election, Representative Mimi Waters launched a campaign to head the NRCC after election night results showed her comfortably ahead. That proved to be a very short-lived campaign as she has now conceded defeat.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 1:07 am 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
AP has called the 39th district for Cisneros over Kim. This is PSM's district, and I know she must be delighted. --Bob


The Democrats have also picked up a seat in Utah, so that makes a net gain of 39 seats so far. Democrats aslo lost two seats in Minnesota of all places, so they actually flipped 41 seats this election.

In the Georgia 7th District, which is also in the Atlanta suburbs, Congressman Rob Woodall finished about 400 votes ahead of his Democratic challenger Carolyn Bourdeaux. There will be a recount, but I'm not sure how she makes up 400 votes.

Barring a very odd result in the recount, the only remaining district that's up for grabs in the California 21st, which will probably be a very close final result. A win there would mean a 40 seat gain for the Democrats. BTW, either 39 or 40 were outside most of the experts' predictions, except for 538, whose final call was a 39 seat gain.

In another amusing California note, the day after the election, Representative Mimi Waters launched a campaign to head the NRCC after election night results showed her comfortably ahead. That proved to be a very short-lived campaign as she has now conceded defeat.
Don't forget to note that the networks called California's 21st for the incumbent, David Valadao, on Election Night. As far as I know, they haven't yet retracted that call. --Bob

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:24 pm 
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Bob78164 wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
AP has called the 39th district for Cisneros over Kim. This is PSM's district, and I know she must be delighted. --Bob


The Democrats have also picked up a seat in Utah, so that makes a net gain of 39 seats so far. Democrats aslo lost two seats in Minnesota of all places, so they actually flipped 41 seats this election.

In the Georgia 7th District, which is also in the Atlanta suburbs, Congressman Rob Woodall finished about 400 votes ahead of his Democratic challenger Carolyn Bourdeaux. There will be a recount, but I'm not sure how she makes up 400 votes.

Barring a very odd result in the recount, the only remaining district that's up for grabs in the California 21st, which will probably be a very close final result. A win there would mean a 40 seat gain for the Democrats. BTW, either 39 or 40 were outside most of the experts' predictions, except for 538, whose final call was a 39 seat gain.

In another amusing California note, the day after the election, Representative Mimi Waters launched a campaign to head the NRCC after election night results showed her comfortably ahead. That proved to be a very short-lived campaign as she has now conceded defeat.
Don't forget to note that the networks called California's 21st for the incumbent, David Valadao, on Election Night. As far as I know, they haven't yet retracted that call. --Bob
Democrat T.J. Cox now has the lead over incumbent Republican David Valadao in California’s 21st Congressional District. If the lead holds, it will mean a 40-seat gain with Democrats going 7 for 7 in California’s Romney-Clinton districts. —Bob

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:05 pm 
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It’s all over but the shouting in California’s 21st Congressional District. Valadao’s stronghold of Kings County just issued its final report, and Valadao fell a further 70 votes behind. The remaining counties have been trending toward Cox since Election Day so Cox’s current lead rates to grow. Democrats will end up with 46 of California’s 53 seats in the House. —Bob

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:49 pm 
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Bob78164 wrote:
It’s all over but the shouting in California’s 21st Congressional District. Valadao’s stronghold of Kings County just issued its final report, and Valadao fell a further 70 votes behind. The remaining counties have been trending toward Cox since Election Day so Cox’s current lead rates to grow. Democrats will end up with 46 of California’s 53 seats in the House. —Bob


Unfortunately, what's still there in California are the rottenest of the rotten apples: Devin Nunes, Kevin McCarthy, and especially Duncan Hunter.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:17 am 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
It’s all over but the shouting in California’s 21st Congressional District. Valadao’s stronghold of Kings County just issued its final report, and Valadao fell a further 70 votes behind. The remaining counties have been trending toward Cox since Election Day so Cox’s current lead rates to grow. Democrats will end up with 46 of California’s 53 seats in the House. —Bob


Unfortunately, what's still there in California are the rottenest of the rotten apples: Devin Nunes, Kevin McCarthy, and especially Duncan Hunter.


Aside from the indictments on corruption charges, Duncan Hunter is a confirmed scumbag mostly because he vapes in Congress.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:54 am 
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Pastor Fireball wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
It’s all over but the shouting in California’s 21st Congressional District. Valadao’s stronghold of Kings County just issued its final report, and Valadao fell a further 70 votes behind. The remaining counties have been trending toward Cox since Election Day so Cox’s current lead rates to grow. Democrats will end up with 46 of California’s 53 seats in the House. —Bob


Unfortunately, what's still there in California are the rottenest of the rotten apples: Devin Nunes, Kevin McCarthy, and especially Duncan Hunter.


Aside from the indictments on corruption charges, Duncan Hunter is a confirmed scumbag mostly because he vapes in Congress.
If Hunter is convicted he’ll resign and a different Republican will be elected to replace him. He might even get primaried. I suspect this will be his last term. —Bob

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:18 am 
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I've seen some of the California voting totals and the changes from election night until today are startling:

CA-21: November 6 R +5631; December 5 D + 862
CA-39: November 6 R +3879; December 5 D + 7610
CA-45: November 6 R +6233; December 5 D +12523 (this is the district where Mimi Walters briefly campaigned for head of the NRCC immediately after the election)
CA-48: November 6 D +2682; December 5 D+20938
CA-25: November 6 R +4117; December 6 D+21396
CA-10: November 6 R +1287; December 6 D+9967
CA-49: November 6 D +16858; December 5 D+37215
CA-50: November 6 R +12943; December 5 R+9167 (Duncan Hunter's district)

I've seen two explanations for the nearly universal trend Democratic in later results. The first is that election night results have more ballots that were mailed in considerably earlier and those tend to be older voters. The second is that rural precincts have fewer total voters and get their results, including mail-ins finished earlier. I think both factors play into this here, but of course Bob ###, our resident California election expert may have more on that.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:21 pm 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
I've seen some of the California voting totals and the changes from election night until today are startling:

CA-21: November 6 R +5631; December 5 D + 862
CA-39: November 6 R +3879; December 5 D + 7610
CA-45: November 6 R +6233; December 5 D +12523 (this is the district where Mimi Walters briefly campaigned for head of the NRCC immediately after the election)
CA-48: November 6 D +2682; December 5 D+20938
CA-25: November 6 R +4117; December 6 D+21396
CA-10: November 6 R +1287; December 6 D+9967
CA-49: November 6 D +16858; December 5 D+37215
CA-50: November 6 R +12943; December 5 R+9167 (Duncan Hunter's district)

I've seen two explanations for the nearly universal trend Democratic in later results. The first is that election night results have more ballots that were mailed in considerably earlier and those tend to be older voters. The second is that rural precincts have fewer total voters and get their results, including mail-ins finished earlier. I think both factors play into this here, but of course Bob ###, our resident California election expert may have more on that.
I'm not sure about the rural-precinct factor. I am sure about the mail-in factor, particularly with the change effective with this year's elections that votes are valid if they are postmarked (rather than received) by Election Day, as long as they're received by the Friday following Election Day. (I think federal law requires that military voters get even more leeway for receipt of their ballots.)

And (unlike in North Carolina) ballot harvesting is now legal in California. Democrats took full advantage. Republicans did not. I don't think they'll make that particular mistake next time, but since Republicans tend to be more reliable voters than Democrats, I think their belated awakening will only allow them to reduce, not eliminate, the advantage from this factor.

This differential has been a well recognized phenomenon in California elections for quite a while now, but the size of the disparity obviously took some networks by surprise. It took them two weeks to uncall CA 21, which they all called for Valadao on Election Night. --Bob

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:33 am 
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And it's official. Rep. Valadao has conceded the race to T.J. Cox. --Bob

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:11 pm 
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Having completed his prison sentence, George Papadopoulos has announced his intent to run for an Orange County Congressional seat in 2020. --Bob

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:04 pm 
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Bob78164 wrote:
Having completed his prison sentence, George Papadopoulos has announced his intent to run for an Orange County Congressional seat in 2020. --Bob

:lol:

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