primary day in Indiana

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earendel · #1 Post by **earendel** » Tue May 06, 2008 8:19 am

(and North Carolina)

I bring this up because of an interesting observation I made the other day. Both Clinton and Obama have been hitting the airwaves hard locally (Louisville stations beam their signals into southern Indiana) and making campaign stops in the area also. Last Friday as I was going out to my son's apartment I saw a veritable plethora of campaign signs for various offices, but only two (two!!!) presidential signs - and both were for Obama. This says to me that the public isn't very enthusiastic about the candidates even though a lot of media todo has been made about this being the first time in 40 years that Indiana's primary actually mattered.

NellyLunatic1980 · #2 Post by **NellyLunatic1980** » Tue May 06, 2008 8:26 am

I saw a lot of Obama signs and a few Clinton signs when I twice drove through Indianapolis a couple of weeks ago.

earendel · #3 Post by **earendel** » Tue May 06, 2008 8:29 am

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:I saw a lot of Obama signs and a few Clinton signs when I twice drove through Indianapolis a couple of weeks ago.

That's not surprising. I was just struck by how little impact the campaign seems to have made in this area - which doesn't bode well for Clinton since the voters in this area are more like the Pennsylvania voters who gave her the victory in that state's primary.

NellyLunatic1980 · #4 Post by **NellyLunatic1980** » Tue May 06, 2008 8:46 am

I believe that the one area in Indiana that could be telling in who wins that state is northwestern Indiana. Cities like Gary, Munster, and Merrillville are all part of the Chicago metro area and have huge African-American populations. But that part of Indiana is also part of the "rust belt", thanks to the huge U.S. Steel plant in Gary that can be seen all the way from the interchange on I-65 and I-80/94.

Whoever runs up the numbers in northern Indiana will win.

I predict that Obama will win it by less than 3%.

PlacentiaSoccerMom · #5 Post by **PlacentiaSoccerMom** » Tue May 06, 2008 9:33 am

Hopefull the best woman, er, person, will win.

Sir_Galahad · #6 Post by **Sir_Galahad** » Tue May 06, 2008 10:57 am

PlacentiaSoccerMom wrote:Hopefull the best woman, er, person, will win.

I was actually pretty impressed with the way she handled O'Reilly's questions during her interview last week. If she were more conservative, I think I would actually vote for her. But her Robin Hood mentally on many issues goes against my basic tenets.

Ritterskoop · #7 Post by **Ritterskoop** » Tue May 06, 2008 11:25 am

Everyone is fired up here. Our primary hasn't mattered in decades.

peacock2121 · #8 Post by **peacock2121** » Tue May 06, 2008 11:28 am

Ritterskoop wrote:Everyone is fired up here. Our primary hasn't mattered in decades.

It is one of the good things that has come out of this race.

mrkelley23 · #9 Post by **mrkelley23** » Tue May 06, 2008 3:07 pm

One of the interesting to wrinkles to the IN race is the everloving time-zone issue. Because [sarcafont] Our Man Mitch [/sarcafont] switched the whole state to DST, the polls will close in nine IN counties (I think it's still 9 -- they keep changing and changing back) one hour later than they do in the rest of the state. Those nine counties are in extreme northwestern IN (the Region, as Nelly pointed out) and extreme southwestern Indiana, my stomping grounds. Because they are relatively urban (compared to the rest of the state) but also Rust Belt-ish, as Nelly also pointed out, I think it's anyone's guess as to who takes these counties.

In short, don't put too much stock in the earliest returns from Indiana.

andrewjackson · #10 Post by **andrewjackson** » Tue May 06, 2008 3:51 pm

mrkelley23 wrote:One of the interesting to wrinkles to the IN race is the everloving time-zone issue. Because [sarcafont] Our Man Mitch [/sarcafont] switched the whole state to DST, the polls will close in nine IN counties (I think it's still 9 -- they keep changing and changing back) one hour later than they do in the rest of the state. Those nine counties are in extreme northwestern IN (the Region, as Nelly pointed out) and extreme southwestern Indiana, my stomping grounds. Because they are relatively urban (compared to the rest of the state) but also Rust Belt-ish, as Nelly also pointed out, I think it's anyone's guess as to who takes these counties.

In short, don't put too much stock in the earliest returns from Indiana.

I think it is 12 counties now.

Jasper, Lake, LaPorte, Newton, Porter, and Starke in NW Indiana.

Gibson, Perry, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, and Warrick in SW Indiana.

Perry tried to switch back to Eastern Time but was denied.

Ritterskoop · #11 Post by **Ritterskoop** » Tue May 06, 2008 3:54 pm

mrkelley23 wrote:
In short, don't put too much stock in the earliest returns from Indiana.

I thought there are not supposed to be any news reports about the voting until they close - like in Florida, where part of it is in Central Time, and they have to wait another hour to broadcast anything.

SportsFan68 · #12 Post by **SportsFan68** » Tue May 06, 2008 3:56 pm

Ritterskoop wrote:
mrkelley23 wrote:
In short, don't put too much stock in the earliest returns from Indiana.
I thought there are not supposed to be any news reports about the voting until they close - like in Florida, where part of it is in Central Time, and they have to wait another hour to broadcast anything.

Crud. I thought we were gonna get an update with good info in about four minutes.

Oh well.

Ritterskoop · #13 Post by **Ritterskoop** » Tue May 06, 2008 4:00 pm

SportsFan68 wrote:
Ritterskoop wrote:
mrkelley23 wrote:
In short, don't put too much stock in the earliest returns from Indiana.
I thought there are not supposed to be any news reports about the voting until they close - like in Florida, where part of it is in Central Time, and they have to wait another hour to broadcast anything.
Crud. I thought we were gonna get an update with good info in about four minutes.

Oh well.

You might get a good update, I don't know. Maybe they only ask local stations to hold off, so as not to influence the local voters.

Our polls don't close for another hour and a half, so we won't see much on TV news except "Boy, we sure are getting a lot of voters today!"

SportsFan68 · #14 Post by **SportsFan68** » Tue May 06, 2008 4:04 pm

Ritterskoop wrote:
SportsFan68 wrote:
Ritterskoop wrote: I thought there are not supposed to be any news reports about the voting until they close - like in Florida, where part of it is in Central Time, and they have to wait another hour to broadcast anything.
Crud. I thought we were gonna get an update with good info in about four minutes.

Oh well.
You might get a good update, I don't know. Maybe they only ask local stations to hold off, so as not to influence the local voters.

Our polls don't close for another hour and a half, so we won't see much on TV news except "Boy, we sure are getting a lot of voters today!"

Nope, pretty thin -- turnout high, African Americans turning out for Obama 9 in 10, whites turning out for Clinton 6 in 10, the economy is the key issue. No actual numbers.

I can wait. The television over at the rec center building where we play bridge gets CNN.

NellyLunatic1980 · #15 Post by **NellyLunatic1980** » Wed May 07, 2008 4:42 am

I didn't get the winner right, but I was on target with the margin of victory.

Clinton--638,200 (51%)
Obama--615,800 (49%)

There are still votes yet to be counted in Hamilton, Lake, and Marion counties. Each of these counties was won by Obama, so the 22,400-vote margin could shrink.

As a result of Hillary's whopping 2% win in IN, she gets a whole 4 delegates more than Barack.

But Barack won NC by 14% (222,700 votes), so he erased that 4 delegate deficit with a 58-42 delegate win in the Tar Heel State. Plus, during the voting yesterday, he picked up an additional superdelegate (Jeanette Council, the commissioner of Cumberland Co., which I think is where you find Fayetteville and Ft. Bragg).

Summary: Obama increased his delegate lead by 13 and his popular vote lead by 200,000 votes.

The fat lady hasn't sung yet, but she's warming up backstage.

gsabc · #16 Post by **gsabc** » Wed May 07, 2008 8:03 am

I have not seen any exit poll information on Republicans voting in the Democratic primary. Is there any, and if so, which way did they vote? thanks.

NellyLunatic1980 · #17 Post by **NellyLunatic1980** » Wed May 07, 2008 8:14 am

gsabc wrote:I have not seen any exit poll information on Republicans voting in the Democratic primary. Is there any, and if so, which way did they vote? thanks.

Comedian Rush Limbaugh had little to no impact on the Indiana or North Carolina primaries. According to MSNBC, 52% went for Hillary and 48% went for Barack.