The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

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The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#1 Post by Spock » Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:39 am

Obviously, predictions of the upcoming 2018 Democrat tidal wave are all over the internet on sites of all political stripes. I have no predictions as to whether this will happen or not.

I am trying to decide which Democrat tidal wave is/was more predicted.

1) The upcoming 2018 Democrat one?

or

2) The 2016 Democrat nuclear powered, earthquake-driven, tsunami tidal wave election.

Until, what, 8 PM election night? everybody was still predicting the Democrat 2016 tidal wave. Hillary was a no-brainer. EVERYBODY thought the senate was gone and, maybe even the house.

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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#2 Post by flockofseagulls104 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:12 am

Spock wrote:Obviously, predictions of the upcoming 2018 Democrat tidal wave are all over the internet on sites of all political stripes. I have no predictions as to whether this will happen or not.

I am trying to decide which Democrat tidal wave is/was more predicted.

1) The upcoming 2018 Democrat one?

or

2) The 2016 Democrat nuclear powered, earthquake-driven, tsunami tidal wave election.

Until, what, 8 PM election night? everybody was still predicting the Democrat 2016 tidal wave. Hillary was a no-brainer. EVERYBODY thought the senate was gone and, maybe even the house.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#3 Post by flockofseagulls104 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:14 am

Democrats are real good at winning the pre-election polling. Especially when they only interview democrats.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#4 Post by jarnon » Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:43 am

The most predicted Democratic tidal wave in recent history was in 2008. They said if the GOP nominated Jesus Christ, they'd still lose.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#5 Post by bazodee » Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:34 am

Spock wrote:Obviously, predictions of the upcoming 2018 Democrat tidal wave are all over the internet on sites of all political stripes. I have no predictions as to whether this will happen or not.

I am trying to decide which Democrat tidal wave is/was more predicted.

1) The upcoming 2018 Democrat one?

or

2) The 2016 Democrat nuclear powered, earthquake-driven, tsunami tidal wave election.

Until, what, 8 PM election night? everybody was still predicting the Democrat 2016 tidal wave. Hillary was a no-brainer. EVERYBODY thought the senate was gone and, maybe even the house.
The likely outcome was a Clinton victory. Control of the Senate could have switched but EVERYONE thought that was about a 50-50 chance, and NO ONE thought the Dems would take the House. If you're trying to mock Democratic/progressive prognosticators, perhaps you should try to find more reliable ones. I think you are confusing loud cheerleading for erudite analysis. I hope you can tell the difference. {A problem which also exists in the Republican/Conservative camp.}

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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#6 Post by littlebeast13 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:57 am

jarnon wrote:The most predicted Democratic tidal wave in recent history was in 2008. They said if the GOP nominated Jesus Christ, they'd still lose.

Or the companion wave, given the 8 year party cycle that started with Bubba Clinton, the GOP could have nominated Donald Trump in 2016 and they'd still win....

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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#7 Post by jarnon » Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:08 pm

littlebeast13 wrote:
jarnon wrote:The most predicted Democratic tidal wave in recent history was in 2008. They said if the GOP nominated Jesus Christ, they'd still lose.

Or the companion wave, given the 8 year party cycle that started with Bubba Clinton, the GOP could have nominated Donald Trump in 2016 and they'd still win....

lb13
2008 was a once-in-a-generation disaster for the party in power. Gore came close in 2000, and a Democratic candidate other than Clinton or Sanders could have beaten Trump.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#8 Post by Bob78164 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:26 pm

Spock wrote:Obviously, predictions of the upcoming 2018 Democrat tidal wave are all over the internet on sites of all political stripes. I have no predictions as to whether this will happen or not.

I am trying to decide which Democrat tidal wave is/was more predicted.

1) The upcoming 2018 Democrat one?

or

2) The 2016 Democrat nuclear powered, earthquake-driven, tsunami tidal wave election.

Until, what, 8 PM election night? everybody was still predicting the Democrat 2016 tidal wave. Hillary was a no-brainer. EVERYBODY thought the senate was gone and, maybe even the house.
You obviously don't read Nate Silver's site. Days before the election, Harry Enten published a story there entitled, "Trump Is Only a Normal Polling Error Away from Winning." Nate was appropriately cautious about the upcoming election, and even described four scenarios, one of which turned out to be pretty much what happened in the actual election.

Over the course of the last year, Nate published a long series critiquing press coverage of the 2016 presidential election. The premise, which he established with examples, was that most of the mainstream press was (at least in its writing) seriously overconfident about the chance of a Clinton victory. He then examined the sources of that overconfidence -- mostly, the inability to understand uncertainty and the limits of polling.

Enten published a very similar headline about Doug Jones shortly before the Alabama special election. But for my money, the most predicted waves in history occurred in 1974 and, before that, in 1932. --Bob
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#9 Post by silverscreenselect » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:11 pm

Bob78164 wrote: You obviously don't read Nate Silver's site. Days before the election, Harry Enten published a story there entitled, "Trump Is Only a Normal Polling Error Away from Winning." Nate was appropriately cautious about the upcoming election, and even described four scenarios, one of which turned out to be pretty much what happened in the actual election.

Over the course of the last year, Nate published a long series critiquing press coverage of the 2016 presidential election. The premise, which he established with examples, was that most of the mainstream press was (at least in its writing) seriously overconfident about the chance of a Clinton victory. He then examined the sources of that overconfidence -- mostly, the inability to understand uncertainty and the limits of polling.

Enten published a very similar headline about Doug Jones shortly before the Alabama special election. But for my money, the most predicted waves in history occurred in 1974 and, before that, in 1932. --Bob
And most of the national popular vote projections in 2016 were fairly accurate.

All of the election results so far this year have skewed in the Democrats' favor, even when they weren't winning special Congressional elections in heavily Republican districts this summer. But now, the Democrats picked up at least 15 seats in the Virginia House as well as winning the Alabama Senate seat. And the Alabama loss isn't only because Roy Moore was a bad candidate. In a normal year, he still would have won by double digits.

It will be tough for Democrats to win the two Senate seats they need, but with tossups in Arizona and Nevada, it's doable, and it's possible if another open seat occurs in Mississippi, the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).

As for the House, the Republicans have several dozen seats that could swing with anything approaching the numbers that have occurred so far.

Unless Trump does something to make himself considerably more palatable to the 60% or so who disapprove of him, it's hard to see anything moving the needle much in his favor and most of the likely scenarios, such as more indictments and arrests, definitely won't help him.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#10 Post by Bob Juch » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:27 pm

jarnon wrote:
littlebeast13 wrote:
jarnon wrote:The most predicted Democratic tidal wave in recent history was in 2008. They said if the GOP nominated Jesus Christ, they'd still lose.

Or the companion wave, given the 8 year party cycle that started with Bubba Clinton, the GOP could have nominated Donald Trump in 2016 and they'd still win....

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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#11 Post by mrkelley23 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:59 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
Bob78164 wrote: You obviously don't read Nate Silver's site. Days before the election, Harry Enten published a story there entitled, "Trump Is Only a Normal Polling Error Away from Winning." Nate was appropriately cautious about the upcoming election, and even described four scenarios, one of which turned out to be pretty much what happened in the actual election.

Over the course of the last year, Nate published a long series critiquing press coverage of the 2016 presidential election. The premise, which he established with examples, was that most of the mainstream press was (at least in its writing) seriously overconfident about the chance of a Clinton victory. He then examined the sources of that overconfidence -- mostly, the inability to understand uncertainty and the limits of polling.

Enten published a very similar headline about Doug Jones shortly before the Alabama special election. But for my money, the most predicted waves in history occurred in 1974 and, before that, in 1932. --Bob
And most of the national popular vote projections in 2016 were fairly accurate.

All of the election results so far this year have skewed in the Democrats' favor, even when they weren't winning special Congressional elections in heavily Republican districts this summer. But now, the Democrats picked up at least 15 seats in the Virginia House as well as winning the Alabama Senate seat. And the Alabama loss isn't only because Roy Moore was a bad candidate. In a normal year, he still would have won by double digits.

It will be tough for Democrats to win the two Senate seats they need, but with tossups in Arizona and Nevada, it's doable, and it's possible if another open seat occurs in Mississippi, the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).

As for the House, the Republicans have several dozen seats that could swing with anything approaching the numbers that have occurred so far.

Unless Trump does something to make himself considerably more palatable to the 60% or so who disapprove of him, it's hard to see anything moving the needle much in his favor and most of the likely scenarios, such as more indictments and arrests, definitely won't help him.
Most people who are looking at Senate projections range from Indiana being "vulnerable" for Democrats, to thinking it will stay Democratic.

I hate to say it, but I disagree.

Joe Donnelly is a smart and sensible politician, and he shows a good nose for placating conservative voters, but there's too much anger here. It's hard for people who are not from around here to see how it could be happening, but there's a large percentage of Hoosiers who are buying every bit of the Trump camp's paranoia -- he's only failing because everybody's against him, etc. The cognitive dissonance is stunning. But the anti-Trump forces aren't helping by casting everything he does or says as stupid and/or evil; and casting all Trump voters as racist dolts. The only possible outcome from that is Trump voters digging in their heels and refusing to see anything other than what they want to see.

I read a poll today that said that 42% of the Republicans surveyed believed that Trump repealed Obamacare this year. FDSN.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#12 Post by mrkelley23 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:02 pm

Oh, and by the way, there are two Republican candidates running to oppose Donnelly in 2018. Both of them are decent people -- one of them an establishment Republican, and the other a more radical conservative. But neither of them is stupid (as Mourdock was) and neither of them is likely to have skeletons the size of Roy Moore's. I think Donnelly will lose by double digits.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#13 Post by silverscreenselect » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:43 pm

mrkelley23 wrote:Oh, and by the way, there are two Republican candidates running to oppose Donnelly in 2018. Both of them are decent people -- one of them an establishment Republican, and the other a more radical conservative. But neither of them is stupid (as Mourdock was) and neither of them is likely to have skeletons the size of Roy Moore's. I think Donnelly will lose by double digits.
I knew nothing about this race until these posts but I did a quick lookup. Here's what CNN has to say:
Neither of the two Republicans running against Donnelly -- Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita -- are likely to make such a mistake in 2018.

However, this primary battle will be nasty and personal. Rokita and Messer have already called each other "unhinged." Rokita attacked Messer for moving his family to Washington after being elected to Congress, and criticized a contract Messer's wife has for part-time legal work for the city of Fishers. Already, it has split Trump world, with Trump supporters in the state backing Rokita while Pence's allies are behind Messer. Democrats' hope is that their fight leaves the winner politically damaged headed into the fall.
An article this summer from the Indianapolis Star on the race says pretty much the same thing:

https://www.indystar.com/story/opinion/ ... 104718544/

One big question in a lot of Senate races next year will be to what extent Trump gets involved, and, whether he endorses anyone in the primary or not.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#14 Post by mrkelley23 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:06 am

silverscreenselect wrote:
mrkelley23 wrote:Oh, and by the way, there are two Republican candidates running to oppose Donnelly in 2018. Both of them are decent people -- one of them an establishment Republican, and the other a more radical conservative. But neither of them is stupid (as Mourdock was) and neither of them is likely to have skeletons the size of Roy Moore's. I think Donnelly will lose by double digits.
I knew nothing about this race until these posts but I did a quick lookup. Here's what CNN has to say:
Neither of the two Republicans running against Donnelly -- Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita -- are likely to make such a mistake in 2018.

However, this primary battle will be nasty and personal. Rokita and Messer have already called each other "unhinged." Rokita attacked Messer for moving his family to Washington after being elected to Congress, and criticized a contract Messer's wife has for part-time legal work for the city of Fishers. Already, it has split Trump world, with Trump supporters in the state backing Rokita while Pence's allies are behind Messer. Democrats' hope is that their fight leaves the winner politically damaged headed into the fall.
An article this summer from the Indianapolis Star on the race says pretty much the same thing:

https://www.indystar.com/story/opinion/ ... 104718544/

One big question in a lot of Senate races next year will be to what extent Trump gets involved, and, whether he endorses anyone in the primary or not.
I agree with CNN's analysis, basically, but things would have to break almost as crazy as the electoral college did in 2016 for it to damage either one enough. I'll analyze again in April, after the damage has been done, but my prediction stands. I think the Democrats need to pick up three seats, not two, to take the Senate in 2018.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#15 Post by mellytu74 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:22 am

Actually, I think the most predicted Democratic wave in history was the Watergate Babies of 1974 -- a group of mostly young enthusiastic congresspeople who won 50 Republican-held seats -- but, that may just be me.

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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#16 Post by silverscreenselect » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:33 pm

silverscreenselect wrote: the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).
Lo, and behold, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the convicted felon former sheriff of Maricopa County, AZ, is running for Jeff Flake's open Senate seat. An early poll shows him neck and neck with Representative Martha McSally, a more establishment Republican candidate.

Joe's slogan:

"If you liked the child molester, you'll love the racist felon."
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#17 Post by Bob78164 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:01 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote: the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).
Lo, and behold, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the convicted felon former sheriff of Maricopa County, AZ, is running for Jeff Flake's open Senate seat. An early poll shows him neck and neck with Representative Martha McSally, a more establishment Republican candidate.

Joe's slogan:

"If you liked the child molester, you'll love the racist felon."
I think there's also a third credible candidate for the nomination, Kelli Ward, who might also face some difficulties in the general election. --Bob
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#18 Post by flockofseagulls104 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:41 pm

If predictions had any validity, we'd be under the Clinton regime right now. The thing is, the Trump haters are so all in with it, they really think everyone hates him as much as they do. Most of us roll our eyes at the true Trump haters. BJ thinks he's being cute when he regurgitates the trump bashes he comes across. It's just stupid. Trump's a jerk, but when you go around saying that everything he does is going to be the end of the world as we know it, eventually you lose credibility.
Your friendly neighborhood racist. On the waiting list to be a nazi. Designated an honorary 'snowflake'. Trolled by the very best, as well as by BJ. Always typical, unlike others.., Fulminator, Hopelessly in the tank for trump... inappropriate... Flocking himself... Probably a tucking sexist, too... All thought comes from the right wing noise machine(TM)... A clear and present threat to The Future Of Our Democracy.. Doesn't understand anything... Made the trump apologist and enabler playoffs... Heathen bastard... Knows nothing about history... Liar.... don't know much about statistics and polling... Nothing at all about biology... Ignorant Bigot... Potential Future Pariah... Big Nerd... Spiraling, Anti-Trans Bigot.. A Lunatic AND a Bigot.. Very Ignorant of the World in General... Sounds deranged... Fake Christian... Weird... has the mind of a child... has paranoid delusions... Simpleton

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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#19 Post by silverscreenselect » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:09 am

flockofseagulls104 wrote:If predictions had any validity, we'd be under the Clinton regime right now.
Nate Silver has written extensively about this at Fivethirtyeight.com. Leaving aside the fact that the statistical "predictions" were fairly accurate as far as Clinton winning the popular vote, Silver has pointed out that Trump's victory over Cllinton was within a normal polling error and was roughly the same degree of an upset as Doug Jones winning in Alabama (based on the polls immediately before the election). Similarly, polls in Virginia showed the Democratic candidate Northam with a three-point lead, which wound up being a nine-point win. Again, the order of magnitude of that error was about the same as the Trump and Jones errors.

That said, the Democratic lead as far as House races are concerned is considerably higher than the lead Hillary Clinton had. Of course, thing could change in the next ten months.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#20 Post by silverscreenselect » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:04 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).
And this time, we go to Missouri, where Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill (who has been extremely lucky in both her elections, last time beating Todd "legitimate rape" Akins) probably faces a tough fight. So now, the Republican governor of Missouri, Eric Greitens, who ran on a platform of ethics reform, stands accused of trying to blackmail a woman with whom he was having an affair. Greitens supposedly threatened to publish nude photos of her if she revealed the affair. The governor has admitted the affair but denied the blackmail.

Of course, Greitens isn't a candidate against McCaskill, but Republicans tend to circle the wagons when things like this happen, so there's a good chance this could snowball into something that engulfs a number of Republican politicians.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#21 Post by silverscreenselect » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:57 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote: the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).
Lo, and behold, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the convicted felon former sheriff of Maricopa County, AZ, is running for Jeff Flake's open Senate seat. An early poll shows him neck and neck with Representative Martha McSally, a more establishment Republican candidate.

Joe's slogan:

"If you liked the child molester, you'll love the racist felon."
Joe Arpaio today on Obama's birth certificate:

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/10/politics/ ... index.html

Some gifts just keep on giving.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#22 Post by Bob Juch » Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:43 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote: the Republicans could once again nominate a fringe candidate (something they seem to do a lot).
Lo, and behold, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the convicted felon former sheriff of Maricopa County, AZ, is running for Jeff Flake's open Senate seat. An early poll shows him neck and neck with Representative Martha McSally, a more establishment Republican candidate.

Joe's slogan:

"If you liked the child molester, you'll love the racist felon."
Joe Arpaio today on Obama's birth certificate:

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/10/politics/ ... index.html

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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#23 Post by silverscreenselect » Tue May 01, 2018 1:53 pm

mrkelley23 wrote:Oh, and by the way, there are two Republican candidates running to oppose Donnelly in 2018. Both of them are decent people -- one of them an establishment Republican, and the other a more radical conservative. But neither of them is stupid (as Mourdock was) and neither of them is likely to have skeletons the size of Roy Moore's. I think Donnelly will lose by double digits.
Funny you should say that, because there is an article out about the third Republican candidate in the primary, businessman Mike Braun, who may actually be in the lead. He's at least got one of the best campaign stunts I've ever seen where he goes around with cardboard cutouts of his two opponents in identical suits and asks people if they can tell the two of them apart.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/ ... aun-560708
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#24 Post by mrkelley23 » Tue May 01, 2018 3:52 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
mrkelley23 wrote:Oh, and by the way, there are two Republican candidates running to oppose Donnelly in 2018. Both of them are decent people -- one of them an establishment Republican, and the other a more radical conservative. But neither of them is stupid (as Mourdock was) and neither of them is likely to have skeletons the size of Roy Moore's. I think Donnelly will lose by double digits.
Funny you should say that, because there is an article out about the third Republican candidate in the primary, businessman Mike Braun, who may actually be in the lead. He's at least got one of the best campaign stunts I've ever seen where he goes around with cardboard cutouts of his two opponents in identical suits and asks people if they can tell the two of them apart.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/ ... aun-560708
I'm not super tuned in to the Republican electorate in Indiana any more, but if Mike Braun wins the nomination, it will be a huge upset. What he's saying makes sense, but (forgive the cheap shot) sense doesn't really seem to be driving Republican primaries in Indiana just now. Braun was a registered Democrat for most of his adult life until very recently, and hasn't shown any love for Trump. Indiana is still very much a Trump-loving state.

The debate last night was a mess. Nobody answered any of the moderator's questions, and the vast majority of comments by candidates consisted of attacks on other candidates. In other words, what we've come to expect from primary debates these days. The battle between Messer and Rokita is already nastier than I thought it would get. It will be interesting to see if the loser backs off after the primary. Donnelly could still win, but I'd still call him a definite underdog.
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Re: The Most Predicted Democrat Wave in History?

#25 Post by silverscreenselect » Wed May 09, 2018 7:33 am

mrkelley23 wrote:I'm not super tuned in to the Republican electorate in Indiana any more, but if Mike Braun wins the nomination, it will be a huge upset.
Well, it turned out to be a huge upset, as Braun got over 40% of the vote, while his two opponents finished with about 30% each (Indiana does not have a runoff, so Braun gets the nomination automatically). The late polls showing him in the lead turned out to be right, although a margin over ten points is still a surprise.

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/pol ... 572321002/
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