WWTBAM Bored

Instead of everybody just speculating and assuming that soybeans are going to go down, I thought, WTH, I might as well post soybean prices once in awhile and see what happens. I look at the numbers every day anyway.

I am going to post local cash prices-I don't want to mess with futures and/or basis.

About 3 weeks ago, I sold some soybeans for $9.50 per bushel for fall 2018 delivery. When the initial news of the tariff thing hit, soybeans had a hard down day and dropped about $.25 per bushel. Since that time, soybeans have clawed their way back and I sold some beans again today for $9.50 per bushel for Fall 2018 delivery.

So this is as good a time as any to start. Soybean prices are back where they were prior to China Tariff news and, have shrugged off the initial hit.
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Soybean price today for April 2018 delivery is $9.50.

Soybean price today for Fall 2018 delivery is also $9.50.
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Obviously, commodity prices move for many reasons, not only China Tariff stuff, but this at least gives us a baseline.
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I am going to do a corn baseline too because of the acre battle with soybeans. For example, spring planting looks like it will be late this year, thus some corn acres might switch to bean acres. Thus hurting bean price.
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Corn price today for April 2018 Delivery is $3.43 per bushel

Corn price today for Fall 2018 Delivery is $3.45 per bushel.

So shouldn't you call this thread "Spock's Log"?

More seriously, I'm a fan of data and evidence so I'm glad you're doing this. --Bob

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"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

AFAIK, China has not imposed their tariffs on grain and beans yet.

_________________
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

_________________
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

Soybeans are a commodity, so if the prediction bears out that demand will drop, prices likely also will drop. The data Spock is offering to tabulate will be useful to evaluate that prediction. --Bob

_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

Been a while, but: soybeans were 9.50 and corn was 3.43 when everybody predicted the world was ending due to Trump's Trade War with China.. There has since been movement both up and down. Currently we are higher. I submit that we have seen soybean prices surprisingly increase from the 9.50 level which, in and of itself, was higher than we should have expected

Soybean price today for May 2018 delivery is $9.66

Soybean price today for Fall 2018 delivery is also $9.66
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Obviously, commodity prices move for many reasons, not only China Tariff stuff, but this at least gives us a baseline.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I am going to do a corn baseline too because of the acre battle with soybeans. For example, spring planting looks like it will be late this year, thus some corn acres might switch to bean acres. Thus hurting bean price.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Corn price today for May 2018 Delivery is $3.60 per bushel

Corn price today for Fall 2018 Delivery is $3.62 per bushel.
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What are the expected yields per acre for corn and soybeans?

_________________
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

I'm reading that U.S. soybean prices have crashed, in favor of Brazilian soybean prices. I'm finding numbers a little north of $8.50. Would you mind posting a current update? --Bob

_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

I'm also seeing corn prices in the $3.60 range, which seems to be pretty close to a 52-week low. --Bob

_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

Looks like dairy prices will be the next to take a hit.

https://www.dairyherd.com/article/mexic ... port-sales

And just as the Chinese found other markets for soybeans, Mexico looks like it will find some new friends in the EU.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-m ... SKBN1HS0PF

I don't remember where I read it, so I can't list a cite, but the newest round of Chinese tariffs will affect industries in areas that voted for Trump by a 2-1 margin over those that voted for Clinton.

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Ah, but trump has asked them to be good patriots and bear with it.

_________________
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

As Trade War Begins, Feds Eye $30 Billion Bailout Fund For Farmers Facing Losses

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trade-war-be ... soc_trk=fb

_________________
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

So how are you going to spend your portion of the $96 that each American household will be "contributing" to trump's bailout?

_________________
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

USA Today has picked up on the soybean issue and the midterm elections:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 840825002/

_________________
Check out our website: http://www.silverscreenvideos.com

_________________
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.