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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:08 pm 
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Instead of everybody just speculating and assuming that soybeans are going to go down, I thought, WTH, I might as well post soybean prices once in awhile and see what happens. I look at the numbers every day anyway.

I am going to post local cash prices-I don't want to mess with futures and/or basis.

About 3 weeks ago, I sold some soybeans for $9.50 per bushel for fall 2018 delivery. When the initial news of the tariff thing hit, soybeans had a hard down day and dropped about $.25 per bushel. Since that time, soybeans have clawed their way back and I sold some beans again today for $9.50 per bushel for Fall 2018 delivery.

So this is as good a time as any to start. Soybean prices are back where they were prior to China Tariff news and, have shrugged off the initial hit.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Soybean price today for April 2018 delivery is $9.50.

Soybean price today for Fall 2018 delivery is also $9.50.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Obviously, commodity prices move for many reasons, not only China Tariff stuff, but this at least gives us a baseline.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I am going to do a corn baseline too because of the acre battle with soybeans. For example, spring planting looks like it will be late this year, thus some corn acres might switch to bean acres. Thus hurting bean price.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Corn price today for April 2018 Delivery is $3.43 per bushel

Corn price today for Fall 2018 Delivery is $3.45 per bushel.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:41 pm 
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Spock wrote:
Instead of everybody just speculating and assuming that soybeans are going to go down, I thought, WTH, I might as well post soybean prices once in awhile and see what happens. I look at the numbers every day anyway.
So shouldn't you call this thread "Spock's Log"?

More seriously, I'm a fan of data and evidence so I'm glad you're doing this. --Bob

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:38 pm 
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AFAIK, China has not imposed their tariffs on grain and beans yet.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:52 pm 
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Washington Post wrote:
In the hours after China floated a levy on soybeans, futures prices dropped 4 percent, or 40 cents, to $9.97 a bushel. That price is approaching the break-even point on many farms, said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at INTL FCStone.

Long-term, the prospects are even worse. Although soybean prices rallied Thursday morning, they were still down more than 20 cents. And even if prices stabilize, tariffs will erode farmers’ Chinese market share, said Wallace Tyner, a Purdue University economist who has modeled the likely effect of the tariffs. Within three to five years, Tyner's model shows, Brazil and Argentina would replace the United States as China’s main source of soybeans. That could force U.S. farmers to switch to less lucrative crops, such as corn or wheat.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:03 pm 
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Bob Juch wrote:
Washington Post wrote:
In the hours after China floated a levy on soybeans, futures prices dropped 4 percent, or 40 cents, to $9.97 a bushel. That price is approaching the break-even point on many farms, said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at INTL FCStone.

Long-term, the prospects are even worse. Although soybean prices rallied Thursday morning, they were still down more than 20 cents. And even if prices stabilize, tariffs will erode farmers’ Chinese market share, said Wallace Tyner, a Purdue University economist who has modeled the likely effect of the tariffs. Within three to five years, Tyner's model shows, Brazil and Argentina would replace the United States as China’s main source of soybeans. That could force U.S. farmers to switch to less lucrative crops, such as corn or wheat.
Soybeans are a commodity, so if the prediction bears out that demand will drop, prices likely also will drop. The data Spock is offering to tabulate will be useful to evaluate that prediction. --Bob

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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 11:43 am 
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Been a while, but: soybeans were 9.50 and corn was 3.43 when everybody predicted the world was ending due to Trump's Trade War with China.. There has since been movement both up and down. Currently we are higher. I submit that we have seen soybean prices surprisingly increase from the 9.50 level which, in and of itself, was higher than we should have expected

Soybean price today for May 2018 delivery is $9.66

Soybean price today for Fall 2018 delivery is also $9.66
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Obviously, commodity prices move for many reasons, not only China Tariff stuff, but this at least gives us a baseline.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I am going to do a corn baseline too because of the acre battle with soybeans. For example, spring planting looks like it will be late this year, thus some corn acres might switch to bean acres. Thus hurting bean price.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Corn price today for May 2018 Delivery is $3.60 per bushel

Corn price today for Fall 2018 Delivery is $3.62 per bushel.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<


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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 12:18 pm 
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Spock wrote:
Been a while, but: soybeans were 9.50 and corn was 3.43 when everybody predicted the world was ending due to Trump's Trade War with China.. There has since been movement both up and down. Currently we are higher. I submit that we have seen soybean prices surprisingly increase from the 9.50 level which, in and of itself, was higher than we should have expected

Soybean price today for May 2018 delivery is $9.66

Soybean price today for Fall 2018 delivery is also $9.66
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Obviously, commodity prices move for many reasons, not only China Tariff stuff, but this at least gives us a baseline.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I am going to do a corn baseline too because of the acre battle with soybeans. For example, spring planting looks like it will be late this year, thus some corn acres might switch to bean acres. Thus hurting bean price.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Corn price today for May 2018 Delivery is $3.60 per bushel

Corn price today for Fall 2018 Delivery is $3.62 per bushel.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

What are the expected yields per acre for corn and soybeans?

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:47 am 
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I'm reading that U.S. soybean prices have crashed, in favor of Brazilian soybean prices. I'm finding numbers a little north of $8.50. Would you mind posting a current update? --Bob

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:37 pm 
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I'm also seeing corn prices in the $3.60 range, which seems to be pretty close to a 52-week low. --Bob

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:01 am 
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Bob78164 wrote:
I'm also seeing corn prices in the $3.60 range, which seems to be pretty close to a 52-week low. --Bob


Looks like dairy prices will be the next to take a hit.

https://www.dairyherd.com/article/mexic ... port-sales

And just as the Chinese found other markets for soybeans, Mexico looks like it will find some new friends in the EU.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-m ... SKBN1HS0PF

I don't remember where I read it, so I can't list a cite, but the newest round of Chinese tariffs will affect industries in areas that voted for Trump by a 2-1 margin over those that voted for Clinton.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:18 am 
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silverscreenselect wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
I'm also seeing corn prices in the $3.60 range, which seems to be pretty close to a 52-week low. --Bob


Looks like dairy prices will be the next to take a hit.

https://www.dairyherd.com/article/mexic ... port-sales

And just as the Chinese found other markets for soybeans, Mexico looks like it will find some new friends in the EU.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-m ... SKBN1HS0PF

I don't remember where I read it, so I can't list a cite, but the newest round of Chinese tariffs will affect industries in areas that voted for Trump by a 2-1 margin over those that voted for Clinton.

Ah, but trump has asked them to be good patriots and bear with it.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:29 pm 
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As Trade War Begins, Feds Eye $30 Billion Bailout Fund For Farmers Facing Losses

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trade-war-be ... soc_trk=fb

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:54 am 
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So how are you going to spend your portion of the $96 that each American household will be "contributing" to trump's bailout?

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2018 6:45 pm 
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USA Today has picked up on the soybean issue and the midterm elections:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 840825002/

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:44 am 
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Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.


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