Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

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Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#1 Post by Bob Juch » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:26 pm

By about 2000 votes and they're still counting in Democratic-leaning counties.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#2 Post by Bob78164 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:34 pm

Bob Juch wrote:By about 2000 votes and they're still counting in Democratic-leaning counties.
My understanding is that a lot of the outstanding vote is in Maricopa County, which has pockets of bright red as well as pockets of bright blue. So just knowing which county the remaining vote is coming from isn't enough. --Bob
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#3 Post by Bob Juch » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:48 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Bob Juch wrote:By about 2000 votes and they're still counting in Democratic-leaning counties.
My understanding is that a lot of the outstanding vote is in Maricopa County, which has pockets of bright red as well as pockets of bright blue. So just knowing which county the remaining vote is coming from isn't enough. --Bob
It's over 9000 now. A lot are from here in bright blue Pima.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#4 Post by Bob Juch » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:54 am

Bob Juch wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
Bob Juch wrote:By about 2000 votes and they're still counting in Democratic-leaning counties.
My understanding is that a lot of the outstanding vote is in Maricopa County, which has pockets of bright red as well as pockets of bright blue. So just knowing which county the remaining vote is coming from isn't enough. --Bob
It's over 9000 now. A lot are from here in bright blue Pima.
Pima County has voted 46,000 more for Sinema so far.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#5 Post by Bob Juch » Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:20 pm

20,203 votes now.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#6 Post by BackInTex » Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:55 pm

3 days after the election and they still don’t have all the votes counted.

Either someone is manipulating the ballots or very incompetent or both.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#7 Post by SportsFan68 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:33 pm

BackInTex wrote:3 days after the election and they still don’t have all the votes counted.

Either someone is manipulating the ballots or very incompetent or both.
Could be something else, especially since it's a mail-in state. When the polls closed, our county had 557 outstanding ballots. 214 were overseas/military, and they get an extra week for mailing. 38 were provisional, made necessary by the County's internet failing. Rather than make the people wait at the polls to confirm their eligibility (you have to option of voting at the polls if you don't want to mail it in), they were allowed to cast a provisional ballot. And 305 will require a "cure." Most of those were signature discrepancies -- people forgot to sign the envelope, or they changed their name but forgot to change their voter registration, stuff like that. They're notified and have a week to cure the problem. The cure and overseas/military deadline is Nov. 14 -- after that, it's too late and doesn't get counted. Those 557 votes make a difference in two races in my county, and it looks like the votes coming in will widen the lead in one case and flip it in the other. All the other races have more than a 557 vote difference.

Anyway, I disagree with BiT. Our results won't be official until the provisional ballots are counted, and I know that it's neither manipulation nor incompetence.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#8 Post by Bob78164 » Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:22 am

BackInTex wrote:3 days after the election and they still don’t have all the votes counted.

Either someone is manipulating the ballots or very incompetent or both.
It takes a while to count hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots. Here in California there are millions and counting won’t be done for weeks. Particularly since they get counted if they were postmarked by Tuesday and received by today. Hell, it takes a while just to open and verify the ballots.

Also, the ballot-counting process is public and is being supervised by both sides. It’s pretty common (at least here in California) that late-counted votes move the numbers between 2% and 4% in the direction of the Democrat. —Bob
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#9 Post by Bob78164 » Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:01 am

Here’s a story explaining why the counting in California is expected to extend past Thanksgiving. It starts with more than 4.6 million ballots still to be counted as of Election Day. —Bob
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#10 Post by silverscreenselect » Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:27 am

BackInTex wrote:3 days after the election and they still don’t have all the votes counted.

Either someone is manipulating the ballots or very incompetent or both.
A lot of these ballots that are uncounted are provisional ballots from voters who have run afoul of a state's restrictive voter ID laws (especially in Florida and here in Georgia). Republicans like to claim they aren't trying to disenfranchise minority voters but now that a situation like this occurs when these ballots might decide a key race, they are screaming about voter fraud.

If the secretaries of state (who usually oversee state elections) would actually do their job instead of trying to deter Democrats from voting, a lot of these snafus wouldn't happen. They don't like spending money on up-to-date voting machines (a big delay in Georgia was caused by malfunctioning machines) or providing adequate numbers of voting locations in minority areas, and it always seems to be a mere coincidence that these officials just happen to be Republicans.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#11 Post by Bob Juch » Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:49 am

BackInTex wrote:3 days after the election and they still don’t have all the votes counted.

Either someone is manipulating the ballots or very incompetent or both.
They still have over 400,000 ballots to count. 75% of the ballots are mailed-in. The problem is verifying the signatures.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#12 Post by Bob78164 » Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:21 pm

Bob Juch wrote:
BackInTex wrote:3 days after the election and they still don’t have all the votes counted.

Either someone is manipulating the ballots or very incompetent or both.
They still have over 400,000 ballots to count. 75% of the ballots are mailed-in. The problem is verifying the signatures.
And when you say "problem," I think you mean that is why the process takes as long as it takes. It has to be done by hand 400,000 times. I'm guessing BiT would not like them to skip that part of the process.

I think that sss is probably mistaken about the provisional ballots being the reason the count takes so long. It is nice, though, that the mechanics of the process provide enough time for legitimate voters to avoid losing their franchise on the basis of an easily fixed paperwork error. --Bob
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#13 Post by silverscreenselect » Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:53 pm

BackInTex wrote:3 days after the election and they still don’t have all the votes counted.

Either someone is manipulating the ballots or very incompetent or both.
This seems to be a problem in a lot of big states. It just doesn't get much attention unless a key race is very close.

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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#14 Post by flockofseagulls104 » Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:08 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
BackInTex wrote:3 days after the election and they still don’t have all the votes counted.

Either someone is manipulating the ballots or very incompetent or both.
A lot of these ballots that are uncounted are provisional ballots from voters who have run afoul of a state's restrictive voter ID laws (especially in Florida and here in Georgia). Republicans like to claim they aren't trying to disenfranchise minority voters but now that a situation like this occurs when these ballots might decide a key race, they are screaming about voter fraud.

If the secretaries of state (who usually oversee state elections) would actually do their job instead of trying to deter Democrats from voting, a lot of these snafus wouldn't happen. They don't like spending money on up-to-date voting machines (a big delay in Georgia was caused by malfunctioning machines) or providing adequate numbers of voting locations in minority areas, and it always seems to be a mere coincidence that these officials just happen to be Republicans.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#15 Post by Bob Juch » Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:31 pm

Martha McSally has conceded.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#16 Post by Bob78164 » Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:41 pm

Bob Juch wrote:Martha McSally has conceded.
I have to give Rep. McSally props for standing up to the pressure the Republican Party was imposing to get her to toss around unfounded accusations of impropriety in the vote-counting process. I'm guessing that Gov. Ducey will appoint her to Senator Kyl's seat when he resigns, as he said he planned to do before the end of the year. That will give her seniority over Senator-elect Sinema and the other newly elected Senators. --Bob
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#17 Post by ghostjmf » Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:38 pm

In Cambridge MA, where I've been a paid poll-worker, we check off the Early Voters & Absentee Ballots from the official check-in & check-out lists, just like we would if the people were standing before us, then feed their ballot into the ballot-reading machine.

If they were standing before us they'd of course feed their own ballot into the machine..

No signature checking.

If the ballots are there election day, that's when this happens.

Those lists we use are compiled from recent census & people who voted in last election. The lists have early voters & absentees premarked on them, so people can't show up & vote twice.

If you're a brand-new voter to the ward/precinct, we check your photo ID. If you didn't fill out that census you have to show photo ID.

If you claim you sent your info in, but we don't have it, you get a provisional ballot. You later go somewhere, probably city hall, to prove you live where you say you do.

And, of course, are who you say you are.

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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#18 Post by jarnon » Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:40 am

Bob78164 wrote:I'm guessing that Gov. Ducey will appoint her to Senator Kyl's seat when he resigns.
Bob's prediction was right. Meghan McCain has tweeted her approval. Like Kyl, McSally is a mainstream Republican who's well liked in Arizona.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#19 Post by silverscreenselect » Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:01 am

Bob78164 wrote: That will give her seniority over Senator-elect Sinema and the other newly elected Senators. --Bob
Seniority only really matters in comparison with Senators of the same party, since each party determines its own assignments. So, what matters is that she's got a leg up on Rick Scott and other newly elected Republicans. Also that she will have the advantage of incumbency, for what it's worth, in the 2020 special election. Unlike some states, McSally will serve until the 2020 general election. If McCain had resigned his seat before the end of May this year, then the special election would have taken place this year.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#20 Post by Bob78164 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:28 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
Bob78164 wrote: That will give her seniority over Senator-elect Sinema and the other newly elected Senators. --Bob
Seniority only really matters in comparison with Senators of the same party, since each party determines its own assignments. So, what matters is that she's got a leg up on Rick Scott and other newly elected Republicans. Also that she will have the advantage of incumbency, for what it's worth, in the 2020 special election. Unlike some states, McSally will serve until the 2020 general election. If McCain had resigned his seat before the end of May this year, then the special election would have taken place this year.
According to 538, the incumbency advantage really isn't worth that much for appointed senators. Her case may be a little different, though, since she just ran for the office and nearly won. --Bob
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#21 Post by Bob Juch » Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:05 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
Bob78164 wrote: That will give her seniority over Senator-elect Sinema and the other newly elected Senators. --Bob
Seniority only really matters in comparison with Senators of the same party, since each party determines its own assignments. So, what matters is that she's got a leg up on Rick Scott and other newly elected Republicans. Also that she will have the advantage of incumbency, for what it's worth, in the 2020 special election. Unlike some states, McSally will serve until the 2020 general election. If McCain had resigned his seat before the end of May this year, then the special election would have taken place this year.
According to 538, the incumbency advantage really isn't worth that much for appointed senators. Her case may be a little different, though, since she just ran for the office and nearly won. --Bob
Sinema will be sworn in first so she will be the senior Senator.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#22 Post by Bob78164 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:26 pm

Bob Juch wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
silverscreenselect wrote:
Seniority only really matters in comparison with Senators of the same party, since each party determines its own assignments. So, what matters is that she's got a leg up on Rick Scott and other newly elected Republicans. Also that she will have the advantage of incumbency, for what it's worth, in the 2020 special election. Unlike some states, McSally will serve until the 2020 general election. If McCain had resigned his seat before the end of May this year, then the special election would have taken place this year.
According to 538, the incumbency advantage really isn't worth that much for appointed senators. Her case may be a little different, though, since she just ran for the office and nearly won. --Bob
Sinema will be sworn in first so she will be the senior Senator.
That's not clear to me. Kyl's resignation will be effective December 31. --Bob
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#23 Post by Bob Juch » Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:09 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Bob Juch wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:According to 538, the incumbency advantage really isn't worth that much for appointed senators. Her case may be a little different, though, since she just ran for the office and nearly won. --Bob
Sinema will be sworn in first so she will be the senior Senator.
That's not clear to me. Kyl's resignation will be effective December 31. --Bob
Sinema will be sworn in first.
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#24 Post by Bob78164 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:39 pm

Bob Juch wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:
Bob Juch wrote: Sinema will be sworn in first so she will be the senior Senator.
That's not clear to me. Kyl's resignation will be effective December 31. --Bob
Sinema will be sworn in first.
That's what you said last time. How do you know this? --Bob
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Re: Kyrsten Sinema takes lead over Martha McSally

#25 Post by Estonut » Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:27 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Bob Juch wrote:
Bob78164 wrote:That's not clear to me. Kyl's resignation will be effective December 31.
Sinema will be sworn in first.
That's what you said last time. How do you know this?
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